Stop following picks.
Start pricing bets.
I help ordinary sports bettors replace opinions with probabilities, prices and systems.
Every bet has two numbers: your estimate and the market price.
Betting since 1998 · Building models since 2004 · Teaching bettors since 2017
$27 ONE TIME · INSTANT ACCESS
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I help ordinary sports bettors replace opinions with probabilities, prices and systems.
- “They’re playing well.”
- “The quarterback is motivated.”
- “This line looks wrong.”
- “I estimate their probability at 58%.”
- “The sportsbook price implies 52%.”
- “The gap is big enough to consider betting.”
That change is bigger than it looks. You are no longer trying to predict one result; you are estimating how often something should happen and comparing that estimate with the price being offered. Now your opinion can be calculated, tested, tracked and improved.
First of all, i want to thank you, you were the first who really opened my eyes for sports betting.
Your first model will probably lose to the market.
Build it anyway.
I have never met a successful sports bettor who could not use a spreadsheet. Some went on to build advanced statistical models, apps, databases or their own odds tools, but almost all of them learned the foundation in a spreadsheet.
Not because spreadsheets are magical. Because a spreadsheet forces you to put a number next to your opinion. Once that number exists, you have something you can measure, test, be wrong about and improve.
Better technology makes the work much faster later. But if you do not understand what is happening underneath, better technology only helps you make mistakes more efficiently.
Choose how far you want to take it.
You do not need to build everything yourself. Some bettors want to understand every formula, some want a finished model, and some want the analysis done faster.
The Toolkit
Build a betting model from an empty spreadsheet while I walk you through every formula. You also get my 4-bucket system and the mindset shift almost nobody teaches bettors.
Sports Betting Models
Use the spreadsheet models I built for MLB, NHL, NFL, soccer, WNBA and international basketball. Each includes the sheet, instructions and video walkthroughs, and every model comes with 50 credits for the AI Betting Assistant.
AI Betting Assistant
Give the Assistant a bet with the odds and context and use it to work through the price, market and reasoning. It will not think for you, but it gets you to the analysis much faster.
“I've just completed my first full year using models for sports betting. I profited 40 units. Before I joined MB's masterclass, I was searching for a way to approach sports betting as a business and investment, not just relying on gut feelings and emotions. I know now that it is possible to do it this way, and I don't have to spend endless hours watching games and staring at stats to try and gain an edge. I just have to continue to learn how to build models and let them do the work.”
Betting changed for me when I stopped trying to pick winners.
I placed my first sports bet in 1998. At first I did what almost everyone does: tried systems, bet parlays, looked for patterns and judged myself by whether the last bet won.
Then in 1999 I started studying water science, where we used Excel to work with probability models. Betting started to look different. Instead of only asking whether a team would win, I started asking how often it should win, and instead of seeing odds as numbers next to team names I started seeing them as prices.
At the time, local bookmakers sometimes left their odds unchanged while the online market had already moved, so I began comparing the two.
There was a probability.
There was a price.
And sometimes there was a difference worth betting.
I kept building spreadsheets and models, eventually left university in my final year and spent periods betting full time. Later I started publishing my work online and on YouTube, and in 2017 I began teaching the process.
Since then I have helped thousands of bettors become more analytical. The tools have changed enormously. The basic idea has not.
Build betting around your life.
Not your life around betting.
Results come and go, and a good month does not make you a genius any more than a bad week makes a working process useless. Betting becomes a problem when tonight’s result starts controlling tomorrow’s decision.
That is why I never wanted Underdog Chance to become another picks service. I want bettors to understand what they are doing well enough that they do not need somebody else telling them what to think every night.
Models, spreadsheets and AI make the work faster and more systematic. The other part is learning to handle uncertainty, accept losing bets, trust a process and keep betting in its proper place.
That is the mindset I write about in my emails.
“I look at myself today and look back 3 years ago. And I see how much I learned. And I must thank you a lot. Your course was the inflection point. And not only about betting.”
Years of this, in public.
I have been publishing models, spreadsheets, analysis and results on YouTube for years. If you want to see how I actually work, start here.
THINK FOR YOURSELF.
I've been betting since 1998 and building models since the early 2000s. In my emails I share how I think about probability, markets, models and risk, plus new tools, the occasional offer, and practical things you can actually use.
No picks. You get the method, so you can put your own number on a game and decide if the price is worth it.
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“I enjoy reading @underdogchance email newsletter. He packs important betting concepts into concise terminology and examples. I don’t know this guy personally or anything, but his free resources were crucial to my development as a smart bettor.”