Hi, I am Marjan.

The founder of this site. You can call me MB.

A father, Betting Analyst, Entrepreneur and
a Sports Betting Consultant.

MB, founder of Underdog Chance

Hi, I am Marjan, the founder of this site. You can call me MB. A father, Betting Analyst, Entrepreneur, and Sports Betting Consultant (important: I don’t sell any sports betting picks).

I don’t sell any sports betting picks

My picks are always 100% free

What is a betting analyst?

A betting analyst is someone who performs expert analysis by using the data, statistical algorithms, and sports betting models to identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data to find value bets. Betting analysts look for mispriced opportunities in the sports betting market.

I want to quickly share my story, my ideas, and my philosophy of both – betting and life in general. With this, you will get a better picture of me, my work, and what is the goal of this site.

Table of contents

Use the links bellow to jump to each section

How It All Started

I was born in 1980 in a small town in Europe and I definitely never thought that I will be involved in some kind of sports betting or even being a sports bettor that will later become an entrepreneur and help sports bettors all over the world. My parents always told me – go to college, get a job and this is the formula for a happy life.

I love them with all my heart and I couldn’t be this person without them. But I ignored that advice later when I was in college. They lived in some other political system, without the internet and since then things have changed dramatically.

Formal education is not that important anymore. Of course, there are still jobs, that require formal education. You can not become a doctor by watching youtube videos. But on the other side, with the internet, many new jobs were created that didn’t exist before.

Professional sports betting and Job opportunities that didn’t exist before

Many people make a living from sports betting (either from actual betting or the things that happen around betting) and there is no specific college for this.

Sports bettors, betting consultants, sports betting entrepreneurs, bookmakers, sports betting analysts, affiliates, marketing… are only a few that make a living from the World of Sports Betting.

Even in my wildest dreams, I didn’t think I will become a sports bettor and an entrepreneur who will later make a living in this industry.

My first bet

I made my first bet when I was 17 years or 18 years old. Back then there were no age restrictions in our local bookie shop because the lady didn’t ask you how old are you. She gave you the ticket and after the games were played, she paid you the profits.

We were kids, who loved sports and we’re looking for the winners. Of course, back then we didn’t have much success. It was just fun and focusing on winners would never bring me to the point where I am right now.

Luck, love for the sports and math brought me to sports betting

I must be honest here because I had luck. If I wouldn’t have the luck, I would still be at that level. Looking for sports betting picks, bet winners, guaranteed picks, locks, and all other crazy things, that don’t work.

Three things happened that changed my life and helped me to make a living from sports betting later. Those are the things that I honestly didn’t have any impact on:

  • My father was a goalie for a local football team and at the same time a professor of mathematics. He showed me a love for both – sports and mathematics.  He showed me how two think like a mathematician and this is for betting much more important than love for sports. I had the ability to look at betting through the numbers and understand quickly the market and betting theory. Sports betting without the numbers is just a sport. And most bettors are stuck here. I was lucky because of my father.
  • My first computers early in my life. My father also bought a computer when I was a kid. And not many people back then had computers in Yugoslavia, where I lived. Atari, Commodore 64, and Commodore 128 were the first computers I had at my home. I later never went deep into programming, but this definitely helped me to understand the importance of computers.
  • Personal Development Books in my early life. When I finished high school, my aunt who was at that point already a successful businesswoman gave me a book as a gift. Susan Jeffers – Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway. That was huge. I was very lucky because of that and this was my first meet with personal development books. Later in my life, I made a lot of mistakes and had my own path. Especially my 20’s were very turbulent, but I always knew how to find confidence and come back when I was down, I knew exactly where to find information about success and I only needed to decide when to push a button. Back then most people never even had contact with the personal development book. To become successful in betting we also must study success. If not, then it is just sports betting, which is not necessarily successful. I was lucky again.

The College, Statistics, Algorithms

The big change started when I moved to a capital city to study Water Science and Environmental Engineering.

In the last year, where I had still a couple of exams, which I could pass in one year, I decided not to finish it. I simply followed my heart and I was already deeply in sports betting.

This was the best decision (for me) because I would never be a good engineer. You must love what you do and I didn’t really love water science, building bridges, or drainage systems.

But I learned a lot in college, especially how to use statistics and without this knowledge and without University, I couldn’t become what I am now:

  • I learned how to use excel and statistics. Water Science was all about statistics and excel back then. I was not the best student, but I still learned many very useful things, that later helped me in betting
  • I learned the importance of numbers and algorithms. All serious businesses, companies,… and of course bookmakers use analytics. I was lucky to understand this from the start. Later it was just how to master this in betting.

Betting the Value by Comparing Odds

Understanding the value is still one of the hardest things to understand for many bettors. But again I was lucky to understand this quickly.

I didn’t focus anymore on who will win the game, because this is completely worthless, but back then I saw that our local sportsbooks simply copy odds from the biggest online bookmakers. What I quickly realized is that they were very slow by moving the odds.

I was simply comparing my local sportsbook odds and the odds from the biggest online bookmakers. It happened many times back then that online bookmakers moved the spread from +7 to +3 and our local sportsbook still had at +6.5.

And this is what I was betting. And this was the value. The online market represented let’s say true probabilities and the prices, while our local sportsbook didn’t move the line.

I didn’t focus on winners, but simply on the numbers and the price that I pay.

I made a lot of money back then. At least for me as a student.

Local sportsbook started banning my bets

The first problems started when they didn’t want to accept my combinations and tickets. And this happened pretty quickly. It happened many times, that I had to move to different locations to try to bet or even ask my friends to bet at the same time on different locations.

I saw that this will not work anymore and the local bookmaker started moving the lines much faster. Because of high margins, I knew I had to find another way.

Sports Handicapper

Because of all these problems with my local bookmakers, where I couldn’t bet anymore just by comparing odds, I decided to analyze games and start finding a value. In the next years, I lived from sports betting and had some occasional jobs, usually at weekends. I could say I became a sports handicapper.

What is a professional sports handicapper?

A professional sports handicapper is a person, who bet on sports with an edge against the sportsbooks (and other bettors) and turns this into a profit. Sports betting handicappers put a lot of time, effort, and energy into analyzing sports events based on the numbers and sports betting analytics.

My handicappers years and baseball betting

I decided to research the market and I wanted to find a sport or the league that can be described with the numbers. I wanted to have a sport with a lot of data, so I can start betting based on my analysis.

I found that baseball is the perfect match for me.

I came from a country, where nobody watches baseball. But I knew that I must separate what I love (soccer) and where I can make profits.

I was pretty successful with my MLB betting and at the same time, I was a participant of all kinds of betting forums, portals, books, etc… I was even invited to secret betting groups, asked to sell picks (I even did this for a short period of time – but this is against my philosophy), and was connected with some of the best sports bettors all over the World.

The freedom and my philosophy of life

Betting and numbers are my passion and this passion is the same now. But in my 20’s I didn’t pay much attention to the bigger picture of life, success, and development.

I had the access to the right information and books. They always helped me to get back up when I was down in my life, but I was still young. Even if I made money with betting I didn’t keep it. I spent it on parties, girls,… and also my money management was not perfect either.

I didn’t have the right plan for what to do with the profits and there were a lot of ups and downs, despite I made very good analyses and bets.

This was the time of searching for my identity as a bettor and the person. I had a great time back then and I also met friends for a lifetime. It was crazy and epic at some point, but there were also very tough periods of time.

I was making profits with betting, but I still ignored the overall picture of life and I was not fully satisfied.

So I went back to books, reading, and started asking questions about life, what to do with betting profits, investments, business, how to generate more income streams, …

After I connected all the dots I started looking at betting and my life from a different perspective.

Books and non-formal education

I was reading books from Anthony Robbins, Napoleon Hill, Stephen Covey, Robert Kiyosaki,…. later more spiritual from Eckhart Tolle, etc…

And I tried to learn more about myself, my life, money, and success.

When I look back, I always wanted to motivate people and help them. When I was young, it was probably because of my ego, because I felt great. And this is of course also a reward. We all need such small rewards. But later I saw that I am really happy if I help someone to succeed.

Three things are very important for a happy life: good relationships, that you make a living with something you truly love and the third is that you make a positive impact on the world and the lives of other people.

My motivation was always freedom

I loved betting and the numbers, but the biggest motivation was never only money. It was always freedom. Many ideas are explained in books like Surrender Experiment by Michael Singer, The Power of Now by Eckhart Tolle, or The 4 Hour Workweek by Tim Ferris.

I started to see a bigger picture of life, investing, and how important is to generate more income streams in your life. The quote “If your job is the only income stream, you are one step away from poverty” is a very powerful one. The book Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki is a pure gem and will help you to understand why some people are always without money, despite they have good jobs or in our case, they are very good sports bettors.

But betting alone is not enough if you don’t fix all other things in your life. After all, relying on only one income stream is a very very bad idea. The average millionaire has at least 7 different income streams. This is something I didn’t understand back then. Why do Lebron James, Cristiano Ronaldo, Jay Z, and other successful people invest in other areas? Because it is important.

For most of my life, I was somehow involved in betting. I spent a total of maybe 4 years of my life for regular 5-9 jobs and at some points, I had weekend jobs, but even then I spent most of the time betting. Either betting or learning about betting and finding my unique methods.

And this is why I started re-investing my sports betting profits and building more income streams. I love the quote: “it is more important how you make money than how much you make” (Gary Vaynerchuk).

Sports Betting had always a big role in my life and this is what I want to do for the rest of my life. Math, statistics, models, investing, intellectual challenge,… with very solid ROI. All I have now wouldn’t be possible without sports betting and of course without some luck on my journey! Luck should not be ignored.

What is the purpose of this site?

The purpose of this site and all my work is to positively impact sports bettors all over the World. The goal is to help sports bettors to STOP following and paying for sports picks services and rather focus on their own betting skills. It is a combination of understanding the money, investment, the right mindset, sports betting models, and understanding the betting theory. This is what helped me and this is what I share with you.

Why?

During all these years, I was of course following closely what is happening in the sports betting world.

Sports Betting Picks, Sports Handicappers, Picks Services grew every year. The presence of sports handicappers without any betting knowledge, who were selling picks was on the rise. And with social media, the whole thing came out of control.

Everyone who has 5 minutes of time sells or shares his picks now. Millions and millions of bettors look for the magical bullets, but there is no quick solution.

Not only that following or paying for picks will not help most bettors in the World, the craziest thing is that the whole thing became 80% marketing and only 20% betting.

Most sports handicappers and betting services don’t use any statistics for betting, don’t even track their bets, or talk about important betting topics, like closing line value, betting algorithms, betting models, finding a value, etc…

This is where I decided that I want to share my story, my views, and the way how I bet. Going deep with the betting topic and sharing information that can really make sports bettors better every day is my passion. I simply love this.

I decided not to focus only on how to find picks, because picks will not help you. But share the bigger picture about betting, where the focus is on how to start using the numbers, make your own betting “picks” and become successful.

I decided to create this site, where the main goal is not sports picks but sharing my knowledge, how I bet and what is my betting philosophy.

The goal is to change sports bettors’ lives forever. This is what gives me extra happiness and satisfaction in my betting world.

Ethical and Moral Sports Betting – My Views

Gambling is one of the oldest industries because the first gambling activities happened in the period even before written history. From Mesopotamia, China to the first known casino, in 1638 in Venice, Italy.

Wild Wild West

Many governments, states, jurisdictions, or even local authorities either ban sports gambling or having full control. Such regulations also lead to illegal betting and in general sports betting world is like a Wild Wild West.

A combination of all these things has a huge impact on online sports betting sites, sports bettors, and the gambling world in general.

But the things are going in the right direction as more and more serious bettors want that sports betting should be treated as a stock market.

Online Sports Betting Community

But let’s talk about ethical principles because almost every sports bettor has his own view of what is moral and what is not. The questions like…

  • Is it ethical to share sportsbooks affiliate links?
  • Is it ethical to share picks, even if you can not show proof, that you have the edge against the market?
  • Is it ethical to share picks, without analysis and the numbers?
  • Is it ethical to sell picks, despite we know that this is not the most optimal way to win at betting?
  • Is it moral to promote betting as a sport, despite we know, that sports betting is just a market, that is based on math and statistics and 95% have no chance of winning?
  • Is it moral to talk about how you should bet and a the same time promoting bookmakers, writing articles for them, which means only more traffic, more losers?
  • Is it moral for a bookmaker to “teach” bettors how to bet, when at the same time they know that an average bettor, who is not familiar with sports betting analytics can not win in the long run?

My views

Where is that line?

I am not here to judge. Everyone is right and everyone is wrong. We see the world differently and I can just say what is important to me.

Sports betting is still in the first place an entertainment market for most people, this is why I don’t see any problem if anyone is willing to share online betting sites that are reliable and useful. Based on my observation and experiences 90% of all bettors have no intention to go deeper into the topic of sports betting analytics, sports betting models, but are in this space mostly because of fun. And nothing wrong with this.

Sports bettors will place bets and will have fun. Betting + watching the game will give him extra pleasure, for which he is prepared to pay. Sportsbooks are focusing on this idea.

But at the end of the day, we all need a safe market to bet. Until we don’t figure out some decentralized exchange with good liquidity, where people who bet on sports can meet and trade, we will need to stick to traditional online sportsbooks and bookmakers. I also believe that the market will filter out both – bad sportsbooks and losing bettors.

Online Sportsbooks that will offer bad odds or if they will not pay players will die out.

Sports handicappers, who will not have positive long term results and at the same time they will not show some level of knowledge, will be ignored by bettors.

I have simple rules and views on this

  • Be honest with the results and work
  • Show the knowledge. Not just picks. Anyone can throw out picks.
  • Recommending bookmakers is not bad, because we all need them. But they must be trustworthy, useful, and valuable for any sports bettor.
  • Improve all the time.

A proud father who looks for peace in his life

I am a simple person and not a typical sports handicapper. I don’t even call myself a handicapper, maybe a better word is a sports betting analyst and entrepreneur.

I am now in my 40’s and I was never really impressed with gambling, lights, flash, Casinos, and similar things.

I try to live peacefully and at the same time, I understand that I don’t have an influence on many things around us. This is why I try to be grateful for every day and see what the next day will bring.