Yankees vs Twins Prediction

Today’s Yankees vs Twins prediction is guided by our MLB betting model, which favors the Twins with a 59.92% chance of winning. With Chris Paddack pitching, the model projects the Twins at favorable -150 odds, suggesting a solid betting opportunity against the Yankees’ -143. Always verify current odds.


In today’s Yankees vs Twins prediction, we delve deep into the matchup between Carlos Rodon of the New York Yankees and Chris Paddack of the Minnesota Twins, set for May 14, 2024, at Target Field. With the Yankees coming in with decimal odds of 1.70 (-143 US odds) and the Twins at 2.20 (+120 US odds), this game promises to be a riveting contest. Let’s break down the stats, strategies, and predictions for this upcoming MLB duel.

Game Overview

Pitching Matchup Insight

Carlos Rodon (New York Yankees)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.56
  • Advanced Stats: SIERA 3.96, xFIP 4.43, K/9 9, BB/9 2.93, WHIP 1.26, GB/FB 0.7, xERA 4.54

Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.34
  • Advanced Stats: SIERA 3.58, xFIP 3.5, K/9 8.92, BB/9 1.93, WHIP 1.5, GB/FB 1.21, xERA 4.04
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Comparison:

  • New York Yankees: Rank 20
  • Minnesota Twins: Rank 5

Offensive Matchup:

  • New York Yankees: Overall Rank 5, Rank vs LHP 18, Rank vs RHP 3
  • Minnesota Twins: Overall Rank 12, Rank vs LHP 6, Rank vs RHP 13

Detailed Prediction and Analysis

Pitching Dynamics

Both pitchers bring distinctive strengths to the mound. Rodon’s higher strikeout rate might give the Yankees an edge in overpowering batters, but Paddack’s superior control and lower xFIP suggest he could be more effective at suppressing runs against the Yankees’ aggressive hitters.

Team Offense and Strategy

The Yankees’ formidable ranking against right-handed pitchers could challenge Paddack, while the Twins’ decent performance against lefties will test Rodon’s resilience. This offensive contrast makes the game’s outcome even more intriguing.

Yankees vs Twins Prediction

MLB Betting Model Prediction

Our proprietary MLB betting model suggests the following probabilities and betting odds:

  • New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon): 40.07% chance, Model Projected Odds +150 (2.50 Decimal)
  • Minnesota Twins (Chris Paddack): 59.92% chance, Model Projected Odds -150 (1.67 Decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on the model’s analysis and the adjusted Kelly Criterion value of 2.65, indicating good value, our recommended MLB pick is:

  • Minnesota Twins to win with Chris Paddack on the mound at +120 odds.

Conclusion: Yankees vs Twins Prediction

While our Yankees vs Twins prediction leans towards a Twins victory, remember to consider this analysis as one part of your betting strategy. Always shop for the best MLB odds, utilize bonuses, and learn analytical betting strategies to enhance your sports betting success. For a more detailed approach, consider accessing our MLB Betting Model available on Google Sheets, or join one of our sports betting courses.

This game highlights the unpredictability and excitement of MLB matchups, making it a must-watch and a potentially profitable betting opportunity. Enjoy the game and bet wisely!

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.