Yankees vs Rays Prediction

Our MLB betting model’s Yankees vs Rays Prediction gives the New York Yankees a 53.99% win probability (-117 odds) over the Tampa Bay Rays’ 46.00% chance (+117 odds). Despite the Yankees’ statistical edge, the model identifies slight value in betting on the Rays’ moneyline at +121 odds.


As we gear up for an exciting Friday matchup between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays on May 10, 2024, it’s time to analyze the game and offer our Yankees vs Rays Prediction. Clarke Schmidt is set to start for the Yankees against Taj Bradley of the Rays at Tropicana Field. With sportsbooks offering various odds on this contest, it’s crucial to evaluate advanced statistics, pitching matchups, and hitting strengths to provide a comprehensive betting prediction.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: New York Yankees
  • Decimal Odds: 1.65
  • US Odds: -154
  • Home Team: Tampa Bay Rays
  • Decimal Odds: 2.21
  • US Odds: +121
  • Ballpark: Tropicana Field

Starting Pitchers Comparison

  • New York Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.5
  • SIERA: 3.51
  • xFIP: 3.66
  • K/9: 10.25
  • BB/9: 3.25
  • WHIP: 1.31
  • GB/FB: 0.97
  • xERA: 4.42
  • Tampa Bay Rays – Taj Bradley
  • Stats: Not available
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Bullpen Analysis

  • New York Yankees: Ranked 22nd overall in bullpen performance.
  • Tampa Bay Rays: Ranked 24th overall.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

  • New York Yankees
  • Overall Rank: 6th
  • Rank vs LHP: 17th
  • Rank vs RHP: 3rd
  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • Overall Rank: 15th
  • Rank vs LHP: 17th
  • Rank vs RHP: 13th
Yankees vs Rays Prediction

MLB Betting Model Prediction: Yankees vs Rays

According to our betting model’s probabilities, the Yankees have a projected win probability of 53.99% (decimal odds 1.85, -117 US odds) while the Rays have a 46.00% chance of winning (decimal odds 2.17, +117 US odds).

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on the MLB betting model analysis:

  • Side: Tampa Bay Rays
  • Pitcher: Taj Bradley
  • Odds: +121
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.14 (tiny value)
  • Confidence: The model identifies a slight value on the Rays’ moneyline.

Conclusion for Yankees vs Rays Prediction

Our Yankees vs Rays Prediction gives insight into the upcoming matchup, with the Tampa Bay Rays offering some value at home. However, always approach predictions analytically and avoid blindly following sports picks. Shop around for the best MLB odds and take advantage of bonuses during the season. If you’re looking to improve your sports betting skills, explore betting models and courses to learn how to make projections like a pro.

For the final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit the “MLB Picks” page or get access to our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets.

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