Yankees vs Padres Prediction

For our Yankees vs Padres prediction on May 24, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 51.91% win probability. With Yu Darvish on the mound and a stronger bullpen, the recommended pick is the Padres at -102 odds. Bet wisely and check for the best odds.


As the New York Yankees face off against the San Diego Padres on Friday, May 24, 2024, fans and bettors alike are gearing up for an exciting matchup. This game features a showdown between two top-tier pitchers, Carlos Rodon of the Yankees and Yu Darvish of the Padres. Our Yankees vs Padres prediction will delve into the advanced stats, bullpen matchups, and offensive rankings to provide a comprehensive betting analysis.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the detailed analysis, let’s take a look at the basic game information and the current sportsbook odds:

  • Date: Friday, May 24, 2024
  • Ballpark: Petco Park
TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
New York Yankees1.94-106
San Diego Padres1.98-102

Please note that odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bets.

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Starting Pitchers

Carlos Rodon (New York Yankees)

Carlos Rodon, the left-handed pitcher for the Yankees, has posted an impressive ERA of 3.27 this season. His advanced stats provide further insights into his performance:

  • SIERA: 3.88
  • xFIP: 4.31
  • K/9: 9
  • BB/9: 2.62
  • WHIP: 1.2
  • GB/FB: 0.64
  • xERA: 4.89

Rodon is known for his high strikeout rate, which is a crucial factor in his ability to dominate opposing hitters. However, his xERA suggests that he might be performing slightly above his true potential.

Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres)

On the other side, Yu Darvish, the right-handed pitcher for the Padres, has been stellar with an ERA of 2.08. His advanced metrics also highlight his prowess on the mound:

  • SIERA: 3.59
  • xFIP: 3.54
  • K/9: 8.69
  • BB/9: 2.45
  • WHIP: 0.9
  • GB/FB: 0.96
  • xERA: 2.8

Darvish’s lower WHIP and xERA indicate that he has been more effective at limiting baserunners and preventing runs compared to Rodon.

Bullpen Matchup

The bullpen can play a pivotal role in close games. Here’s how the Yankees and Padres bullpens stack up:

  • New York Yankees Bullpen Rank: 20th
  • San Diego Padres Bullpen Rank: 12th

The Padres have a stronger bullpen, which could be a decisive factor in late-game situations.

Offensive Matchup

Offensive performance is crucial in determining the outcome of the game. Let’s compare the overall offensive rankings and specific performances against left-handed and right-handed pitchers:

TeamOverall RankRank vs LHPRank vs RHP
New York Yankees3132
San Diego Padres4251

The Yankees have a slight edge overall and are particularly strong against right-handed pitchers, while the Padres excel against right-handed pitching but struggle significantly against left-handed pitchers like Rodon.

Yankees vs Padres Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides the following probabilities and projected odds for this game:

  • New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon): 48.08% (US Odds: +108, Decimal Odds: 2.08)
  • San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish): 51.91% (US Odds: -108, Decimal Odds: 1.93)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our analysis and the MLB betting model, the recommended pick for this game is:

  • Side: San Diego Padres
  • Pitcher: Yu Darvish
  • Odds: -102
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.28
  • Confidence: Tiny Value

This recommendation is based on the slight edge in probability and the stronger bullpen of the Padres, as well as Darvish’s outstanding performance metrics.

Conclusion: Yankees vs Padres Prediction

In conclusion, our Yankees vs Padres prediction suggests a slight edge for the San Diego Padres. However, it’s essential to use this analysis as a guide rather than blindly following any sports picks. Always shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. For those looking to learn how to bet like a pro, check out our sports betting courses to develop your own analytical approach using sports betting models.

By using the Yankees vs Padres prediction, you can make more informed decisions and potentially increase your chances of a successful bet. Happy betting!

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