Yankees vs Padres Prediction

For the Yankees vs Padres prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Yankees a 52.50% win probability with Clarke Schmidt on the mound, projecting US odds of -111. Meanwhile, the Padres, led by Joe Musgrove, have a 47.50% chance, with projected odds of 111. Bet wisely and shop for the best odds.


The matchup between the New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres promises to be an exciting game at Petco Park on Sunday, May 26, 2024. This analysis will provide a detailed Yankees vs Padres prediction, focusing on pitching, bullpen matchups, offensive capabilities, and betting model probabilities to help you make an informed decision.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: New York Yankees
  • Decimal Odds: 1.75
  • US Odds: -133
  • Home Team: San Diego Padres
  • Decimal Odds: 2.00
  • US Odds: 100
  • Ballpark: Petco Park

Note: Odds can change. Always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 2.59

Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 6.14

Advanced Pitching Stats Comparison

Clarke Schmidt

  • SIERA: 3.39
  • xFIP: 3.48
  • K/9: 9.86
  • BB/9: 2.75
  • WHIP: 1.13
  • GB/FB: 1.06
  • xERA: 3.64

Clarke Schmidt has been performing at a high level, as indicated by his SIERA and xFIP, which suggest his ERA is a true reflection of his pitching prowess. His strikeout rate (K/9) is impressive at 9.86, and he maintains good control with a BB/9 of 2.75. Schmidt’s WHIP and ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) indicate his ability to manage baserunners and keep the ball on the ground.

Joe Musgrove

  • SIERA: 4.19
  • xFIP: 4.38
  • K/9: 7.98
  • BB/9: 3.07
  • WHIP: 1.52
  • GB/FB: 1.15
  • xERA: 6.01

Joe Musgrove has struggled this season, as evidenced by his higher ERA and underlying metrics. His SIERA and xFIP are significantly higher than Schmidt’s, and his strikeout rate is lower at 7.98 K/9. Musgrove’s WHIP and walk rate (BB/9) suggest he has had difficulty controlling baserunners, which could be problematic against a strong Yankees lineup.

Bullpen Matchup

  • New York Yankees: Ranked 12th
  • San Diego Padres: Ranked 11th

Both teams have reliable bullpens, with the Padres holding a slight edge in overall ranking. This suggests that late-game performances could be evenly matched, making the starting pitching and offensive matchups even more crucial.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

New York Yankees

  • Overall Rank: 2nd
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 12th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 1st

San Diego Padres

  • Overall Rank: 6th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 25th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 2nd

The Yankees have an edge in offensive firepower, particularly against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 1st. The Padres also perform well against right-handers, ranking 2nd, but struggle significantly against left-handers.

Yankees vs Padres Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Yankees vs Padres Prediction

  • New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt)
  • Probability: 52.50%
  • Projected US Odds: -111
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.90
  • San Diego Padres (Joe Musgrove)
  • Probability: 47.50%
  • Projected US Odds: 111
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 2.11

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: San Diego Padres
  • Pitcher: Joe Musgrove
  • Odds: 100
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.50
  • Confidence: No value, just a bold opinion

Note: For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets and learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections for yourself.

Conclusion for Yankees vs Padres Prediction

Use this Yankees vs Padres prediction as your guide and always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds. Take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro and use sports betting models, check out my sports betting courses.

By combining advanced pitching metrics, bullpen performance, and offensive rankings, this analysis provides a comprehensive overview to help you make an informed betting decision for the Yankees vs Padres game on May 26, 2024.

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