Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Baltimore Orioles a 67.60% chance to win against the New York Yankees, with recommended odds of -209. The Orioles’ edge is attributed to Corbin Burnes’ pitching prowess and a robust bullpen. A smart bet leans towards the Orioles, reflecting good value at -161.


As the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 1, 2024, sports bettors and baseball fans alike are keenly looking at the starting pitchers: Luis Gil and Corbin Burnes. In this Yankees vs Orioles prediction, we delve into the details of the matchup, analyzing both pitchers, the bullpen effectiveness, and offensive statistics to provide a comprehensive betting guide.

Game Information & Betting Odds


Date: Wednesday, May 1, 2024
Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Away Team: New York Yankees
Home Team: Baltimore Orioles
Decimal Odds: Yankees (3.09) | Orioles (1.48)
US Odds: Yankees (+209) | Orioles (-209)

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Starting Pitchers

  • Luis Gil (Yankees): RHP, ERA 4.01
  • Corbin Burnes (Orioles): RHP, ERA 2.55

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Luis Gil’s Pitching Performance

Luis Gil, a right-handed pitcher for the Yankees, enters the game with a SIERA of 4.21 and an xFIP of 4.12. Despite a high strikeout rate of 12.77 K/9, Gil struggles with control, evidenced by his BB/9 of 6.93. His WHIP stands at 1.34, and with a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 0.88 and an xERA of 2.56, he faces challenges in limiting base runners and managing in-play balls.

Corbin Burnes’ Pitching Dominance

In contrast, Corbin Burnes of the Orioles boasts a lower SIERA of 3.35 and an xFIP of 3.32, indicating more effective pitching. His control is superior with a BB/9 of 2.04 and a strong WHIP of 0.93. His K/9 is lower at 8.92 but is more effective in inducing ground balls with a GB/FB ratio of 1.11 and an xERA of 3.

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Matchup

  • Yankees: Ranked 23rd in bullpen effectiveness
  • Orioles: Ranked 5th, showcasing a significantly stronger bullpen

Offensive Capabilities

  • Yankees: Ranked 1st overall, but varying performance against different pitcher types:
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 14th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 3rd
  • Orioles: Ranked 19th overall, with strong performances against right-handers:
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 2nd
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 2nd
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

Betting Model Insights

Probability & Odds

  • Yankees: 32.38% chance of winning, with projected odds of +209 (3.09 decimal)
  • Orioles: 67.60% chance, projected at -209 (1.48 decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on the advanced metrics and the adjusted Kelly Criterion, the model recommends a moneyline bet on the Baltimore Orioles at -161, which presents good value. Corbin Burnes’ superior control and efficiency, combined with the Orioles’ strong bullpen and offense against right-handers, make them the favorable side.

Conclusion: Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

When making your Yankees vs Orioles prediction, it’s crucial to consider not just the surface statistics but also the deeper metrics like SIERA, xFIP, and bullpen ranks. While the Yankees boast a potent offense, the Orioles’ pitching edge with Corbin Burnes and their bullpen strength are significant factors. Always ensure to shop for the best odds and consider using analytics as part of your betting strategy.

Remember, sports betting should be approached with analysis and care. For further insights and to learn how to create your own projections, consider accessing our MLB Betting Model or joining our sports betting courses.

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