Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

Explore our MLB betting model for the Yankees vs Orioles prediction on April 30, 2024. Our analysis favors the Orioles, showing a strong 62.91% probability of winning against the Yankees. Check out the full breakdown and optimal betting angles for this anticipated matchup.


In our detailed Yankees vs Orioles prediction for Tuesday, April 30, 2024, we break down the matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, looking closely at the pitching duel between Nestor Cortes of the New York Yankees and Dean Kremer of the Baltimore Orioles. With the Yankees coming in with slightly favored odds of -122 against the Orioles at -104, this game is shaping up to be a closely contested battle.

Game Overview

Team and Pitcher Profiles

New York Yankees – Nestor Cortes

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.50
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.74
  • xFIP: 3.86
  • K/9: 8
  • BB/9: 1.25
  • WHIP: 1.00
  • GB/FB: 0.66
  • xERA: 2.53

Baltimore Orioles – Dean Kremer

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.61
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.59
  • xFIP: 3.77
  • K/9: 8.89
  • BB/9: 1.98
  • WHIP: 1.06
  • GB/FB: 0.89
  • xERA: 5.43
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Comparing the Bullpen

  • New York Yankees Bullpen Rank: 21
  • Baltimore Orioles Bullpen Rank: 5

The Orioles’ bullpen outshines the Yankees significantly, holding a top-five rank which may be critical in the latter innings.

Offensive Matchup

  • Yankees Offensive Ranks:
  • Overall: 4
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: 12
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: 3
  • Orioles Offensive Ranks:
  • Overall: 1
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: 2
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: 1

Baltimore’s offense leads the league, especially formidable against lefties like Cortes.

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

Prediction Model Analysis

MLB Betting Model Probability

  • New York Yankees: 37.07% chance, projected odds at +170 (2.70 decimal)
  • Baltimore Orioles: 62.91% chance, projected odds at -170 (1.59 decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Baltimore Orioles
  • Pitcher: Dean Kremer
  • Odds: -104
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 2.43
  • Confidence: Good value

Our model suggests excellent value in backing the Orioles at these odds, with a substantial edge over the market.

Conclusion: Yankees vs Orioles Prediction

When considering this Yankees vs Orioles prediction, always verify current odds and look for the best value. This matchup suggests strong potential for the Orioles to capitalize on their home-field advantage and superior bullpen and offense. However, remember never to follow picks blindly and continue refining your betting strategies by utilizing sports betting models and resources.

For further insights and up-to-date picks, consult our MLB Picks page or explore our detailed MLB betting model in Google Sheets. This will equip you with the knowledge to make your own educated betting decisions throughout the MLB season.

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