Yankees vs Guardians Prediction

The MLB betting model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 57.24% chance of winning against the New York Yankees, with favorable odds at 120. Despite Clarke Schmidt’s lower ERA, Carlos Carrasco’s Guardians are the recommended pick based on our analysis. Always check current odds before placing bets.


As the New York Yankees gear up to face the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on April 12, 2024, the spotlight is on starting pitchers Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Carrasco. In this Yankees vs Guardians prediction, we delve deep into the pitchers’ stats, team dynamics, and betting odds to provide a comprehensive analysis for those interested in MLB betting.

Game Overview

Basic Game Info & Betting Odds

  • Date: Friday, April 12, 2024
  • Venue: Progressive Field
  • Betting Odds:
  • New York Yankees: Decimal Odds – 1.70 | US Odds – -143
  • Cleveland Guardians: Decimal Odds – 2.20 | US Odds – 120

Please note that odds can change, so it’s crucial to check the latest MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitcher Comparison

Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.66
  • SIERA: 4.29
  • xFIP: 4.34
  • K/9: 8.41
  • BB/9: 2.63
  • WHIP: 1.38
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.16

Carlos Carrasco (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 6.61
  • SIERA: 5.07
  • xFIP: 4.87
  • K/9: 6.89
  • BB/9: 3.86
  • WHIP: 1.67
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.48
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction


Bullpen Matchup

  • New York Yankees Bullpen Rank: 27
  • Cleveland Guardians Bullpen Rank: 6

Despite Clarke Schmidt’s relatively better individual stats compared to Carrasco, the Yankees’ bullpen struggles might be a concern, ranked 27th, in contrast to the Guardians’ impressive 6th position.

Offensive Matchup

  • New York Yankees:
  • Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 9
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 7
  • Cleveland Guardians:
  • Overall Rank: 7
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 5
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 8

The Yankees hold a slight edge in overall offensive performance, which might play a critical role in today’s game.

MLB Betting Model Predictions

  • New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt): 42.74% Probability | Projected US Odds: 134 | Decimal: 2.34
  • Cleveland Guardians (Carlos Carrasco): 57.24% Probability | Projected US Odds: -134 | Decimal: 1.75

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB Betting Model analysis, there is good value in betting on the Cleveland Guardians with Carlos Carrasco on the mound, given their odds of 120 and a calculated value of 2.16 with good confidence.

Conclusion: Yankees vs Guardians Prediction

Leverage this Yankees vs Guardians prediction as a guideline, but always shop for the best MLB odds and take advantage of promotions during the baseball betting season. For those looking to refine their betting strategies, consider exploring sports betting courses and models to make informed decisions.

For the latest on MLB Picks and in-depth betting analysis, check our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model on Google Sheets to learn how to craft your own betting projections. Always bet responsibly and enhance your betting strategy by staying informed and analytical.

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