In an age-old American League East rivalry, the New York Yankees will square off against the Boston Red Sox at the iconic Fenway Park on June 16, 2023, at 7:10 PM GMT-4. Whether you’re an avid baseball fan or a passionate bettor, this Yankees vs Red Sox prediction is just for you. We’ll provide comprehensive betting tips, mlb picks, and predictions using both data-driven MLB betting model analysis and Artificial Intelligence (AI) insights.
The current betting odds for this much-anticipated encounter are set. The Yankees are priced at +109 (2.09 in decimal odds), while the Red Sox are slight favorites at -118 (1.85 in decimal odds). For US players looking to get in on the action, Bovada, MyBookie, and Betnow are excellent betting options.
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Stay tuned as we dive deeper into this classic rivalry game, giving you the best MLB predictions and picks to help you make an informed wager. Our analysis covers team stats, pitcher profiles, potential lineups, and more. Let’s delve right into the heart of this Yankees vs Red Sox prediction!
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Comparative Analysis
Let’s look at the teams’ statistics, assessing their performance this season, and draw some conclusions about their form going into the game.
New York Yankees Team Stats
The Yankees, having played 69 games so far this season, are averaging 4.55 runs per game (R/G), ranking 13th in the MLB. They’ve been hitting home runs regularly, with 104 HRs to their name, positioning them as the 4th best team in this aspect. In terms of runs batted in (RBI), they’ve accumulated 303, standing at the 12th place.
Speed on bases isn’t the Yankees’ strongest suit with 46 stolen bases (SB), ranking 18th. They have a batting average (BA) of .232, which is below the league’s average of .2474, and their on-base percentage (OBP) of .300 is considerably lower than the league’s average OBP of .3197.
The Yankees have shown a moderate slugging percentage (SLG) of .416, while their on-base plus slugging (OPS) stands at .716. Their OPS+ is 97, marginally lower than the league’s average OPS+ of 99.83.
Boston Red Sox Team Stats
The Red Sox, also with 69 games under their belt, have been more productive offensively, with an average of 4.9 R/G, making them the 7th best team in run production. They’ve hit 74 HRs, which is below the league average of 79.2, and they’re ranked 18th. Nevertheless, they’ve done well in bringing runs home with 325 RBIs, earning them the 8th spot in the league.
Their 41 SBs put them slightly below the league average of 49.6, ranking 22nd. However, their BA of .259 is significantly better than the league’s average, and their OBP is commendable at .331.
With a SLG of .424, the Red Sox hold the 8th spot, and their OPS of .755 places them likewise. Their OPS+ stands at 102, slightly above the league’s average.
Comparing the Yankees and Red Sox, the Red Sox seem to have an edge in most offensive statistics, but the Yankees’ superior HR-hitting ability could potentially level the playing field.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Potential Lineups
Taking a look at the potential lineups for both teams can give us a clearer picture of the offensive power that will be on display.
Potential Lineup for New York Yankees
In the Yankees’ lineup, we have:
- Jake Bauers (BA: .222, HR: 5, RBI: 14, SLG: .456, WAR: 0, SB: 1)
- Giancarlo Stanton (BA: .222, HR: 6, RBI: 13, SLG: .494, WAR: 0.2, SB: 0)
- Gleyber Torres (BA: .252, HR: 11, RBI: 28, SLG: .424, WAR: 0.8, SB: 6)
- Anthony Rizzo (BA: .266, HR: 11, RBI: 32, SLG: .436, WAR: 1.1, SB: 0)
- Josh Donaldson (BA: .13, HR: 5, RBI: 7, SLG: .457, WAR: 0.1, SB: 0)
- Harrison Bader (BA: .267, HR: 6, RBI: 19, SLG: .511, WAR: 0.8, SB: 6)
- Billy McKinney (BA: .32, HR: 1, RBI: 1, SLG: .64, WAR: 0.3, SB: 0)
- Jose Trevino (BA: .217, HR: 3, RBI: 13, SLG: .317, WAR: 0.6, SB: 0)
- Anthony Volpe (BA: .192, HR: 9, RBI: 27, SLG: .359, WAR: 0.4, SB: 14)
It’s worth noting that Aaron Judge, a significant contributor to the Yankees’ offense, is still missing from their lineup.
Potential Lineup for Boston Red Sox
In the Red Sox’s lineup, we can see:
- Alex Verdugo (BA: .292, HR: 5, RBI: 26, SLG: .447, WAR: 2, SB: 3)
- Masataka Yoshida (BA: .297, HR: 7, RBI: 33, SLG: .461, WAR: 0.9, SB: 3)
- Justin Turner (BA: .272, HR: 8, RBI: 30, SLG: .42, WAR: 0.8, SB: 3)
- Rafael Devers (BA: .247, HR: 17, RBI: 56, SLG: .51, WAR: 1.2, SB: 0)
- Adam Duvall (BA: .333, HR: 4, RBI: 14, SLG: .725, WAR: 0.8, SB: 1)
- Triston Casas (BA: .202, HR: 7, RBI: 19, SLG: .367, WAR: -0.3, SB: 0)
- Christian Arroyo (BA: .24, HR: 2, RBI: 13, SLG: .38, WAR: -0.1, SB: 1)
- Reese McGuire (BA: .265, HR: 0, RBI: 10, SLG: .353, WAR: 0.1, SB: 0)
- Pablo Reyes (BA: .291, HR: 0, RBI: 7, SLG: .364, WAR: 0.1, SB: 1)
Both teams have strong lineups, with each player capable of making a significant impact on the game. The potential absence of Aaron Judge from the Yankees’ lineup may tip the balance slightly in favor of the Red Sox.
Key Player for New York Yankees: Gleyber Torres
From the Yankees, the player to watch is Gleyber Torres. His batting average may not be the highest, but he is showing power at the plate with 11 home runs and 28 runs batted in. With his ability to hit the long ball and also speed on the basepaths (6 stolen bases), Torres can change the complexion of the game in a single play. However, with the absence of Aaron Judge, he will need to step up and fill that offensive void.
Key Player for Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers
For the Red Sox, the standout player is undoubtedly Rafael Devers. He has proven his mettle at the plate with a slugging percentage of .510 and 17 home runs. Devers is a force to be reckoned with, leading the Red Sox with 56 runs batted in. His presence in the lineup could spell trouble for the Yankees’ pitching staff.
When these two teams clash, the performances of these two players could be decisive. Gleyber Torres will be looking to continue his good form, while Rafael Devers will aim to exploit the Yankees’ pitching. Both teams have capable lineups, but the game could very well hinge on the performances of these key players.
Starting Pitchers and Bullpen Rankings
Domingo German – New York Yankees The Yankees will be sending right-hander Domingo German to the mound. German carries a record of 4 wins and 3 losses over 12 games. He possesses a solid earned run average (ERA) of 3.49, indicating his ability to prevent runs from scoring. His strikeouts-per-nine (K/9) rate is 8.6, and his walks-per-nine (BB/9) rate is 2.82, demonstrating good control and strikeout ability. His WHIP stands at 0.99, and his SIERA is 4.12, suggesting he’s effective in limiting walks, hits, and runs.
Tanner Houck – Boston Red Sox Taking the mound for the Red Sox will be Tanner Houck. Despite his win-loss record of 3-6 from 12 games, Houck’s underlying metrics suggest the potential for better performances. His ERA is 5.23, but his xFIP and xERA show he may have suffered from some bad luck. He has a K/9 rate of 8.76 and a BB/9 rate of 3.11, which are strong. His WHIP is 1.26, and his SIERA is 4.02, indicating room for improvement compared to German.
When it comes to the bullpen, the Yankees are ranked 22nd while the Red Sox come in at 26th among all 30 teams.
MLB Betting Model Prediction
The MLB betting model predicts a win percentage of 37.51% for the New York Yankees with projected decimal odds of 2.67, and a win percentage of 62.49% for the Boston Red Sox with projected decimal odds of 1.60. The projected total runs for the full game (Over/Under) is 9.23.
According to the model, the full game moneyline value is on the Boston Red Sox. In terms of the first half betting, the model also suggests value on the Boston Red Sox.
Artificial Intelligence Betting Prediction
After examining all available information including bullpen rankings, the starting pitchers’ stats, and comparing it to sportsbook betting odds, the AI leans toward the Boston Red Sox.
German has delivered strong performance for the Yankees, however, Houck’s underlying metrics suggest he’s due for better results. The Red Sox appear to have the edge given their overall performance and the strength of their lineup.
Yet, the bookies odds indicate an interesting value for the Yankees. With the projected win percentage for the Yankees at 37.51% and the betting odds at 2.09, there seems to be potential value in betting on the Yankees.
That being said, the AI prediction identifies the New York Yankees as a value bet. Despite the Red Sox being the favorite, the Yankees may provide a profitable return based on the given odds.
Please stay tuned for more in-depth analysis and data-driven predictions as we continue to monitor the MLB season.
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