Yankees vs Rays Prediction – Betting Model Analysis 8/27/23

MLB Betting Model Projections and Predictions

Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets and additionally AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of the time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with a positive Closing Line Value (CLV) of +4.52%.

Betting Odds

Team	US Odds	Decimal Odds
New York Yankees	105	2.05
Tampa Bay Rays	-114	1.88

Date: August 27, 2023 Location: Tropicana Field

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Team Stats

New York Yankees

Stat	Value	MLB Rank	League Average
Games Played	129	–	–
Runs Per Game (R/G)	4.22	24	4.604666667
Home Runs (HR)	178	8	156.0666667
Runs Batted In (RBI)	524	24	572.8
Stolen Bases (SB)	79	22	91.9
Batting Average (BA)	0.229	30	0.2486
On-Base Percentage (OBP)	0.304	27	0.3199
Slugging Percentage (SLG)	0.401	20	0.414
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS)	0.705	23	0.7339333333
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+)	92	100	99.86666667

Tampa Bay Rays

Stat	Value	MLB Rank	League Average
Games Played	131	–	–
Runs Per Game (R/G)	5.32	4	4.604666667
Home Runs (HR)	190	4	156.0666667
Runs Batted In (RBI)	668	5	572.8
Stolen Bases (SB)	134	3	91.9
Batting Average (BA)	0.259	4	0.2486
On-Base Percentage (OBP)	0.33	5	0.3199
Slugging Percentage (SLG)	0.447	4	0.414
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS)	0.778	4	0.7339333333
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+)	115	100	99.86666667

Starting Pitchers

Team	Pitcher	Hand	Wins (W)	Losses (L)	Games Started (GS)	Earned Run Average (ERA)	Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9)	Walks Per Nine Innings (BB/9)	Walks and Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP)	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)	Expected Earned Run Average (xERA)	Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB)	Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA)
New York Yankees	Carlos Rodon	L	1	4	7	6.27	7.09	4.91	1.42	6.06	5.62	0.59	5.73
Tampa Bay Rays	Zack Littell	R	2	3	8	3.57	7.64	0.51	1.13	3.75	–	1	3.92

Bullpen Rankings

Team	Ranking
New York Yankees	11
Tampa Bay Rays	22

MLB Betting Model Prediction Full Game

Team	Projected MLB Model Win%	Projected US Odds	Projected Decimal Odds	Projected Over Under – Total Runs for Full Game
New York Yankees	35.94%	178	2.78	9.81
Tampa Bay Rays	64.04%	-178	1.56	–

Betting Analysis

Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Tampa Bay Rays. The first half betting value is also on the Tampa Bay Rays.

BEST BETS

• Tampa Bay Rays (Littell) -114
• Tampa Bay Rays (Littell) 1st5 -123

AI Prediction

Remember that AI prediction is independent from my MLB betting model and it is your prediction based on available stats I gave you and compared to sportsbook odds.

Bookies odds:

• New York Yankees: 105 (2.05)
• Tampa Bay Rays: -114 (1.88)

Comparing the bookies’ odds to the stats provided, the AI prediction also sees value in backing the Tampa Bay Rays. Their offensive stats rank much higher in the league compared to the New York Yankees, and the starting pitcher for the Rays, Zack Littell, has a much more favorable pitching record compared to Carlos Rodon of the Yankees.

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