MLB Betting Model Projections and Predictions

Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets and additionally AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of the time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with a positive Closing Line Value (CLV) of +4.52%.

Betting Odds

TeamUS OddsDecimal Odds
New York Yankees1052.05
Tampa Bay Rays-1141.88

Date: August 27, 2023 Location: Tropicana Field

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Team Stats

New York Yankees

StatValueMLB RankLeague Average
Games Played129
Runs Per Game (R/G)4.22244.604666667
Home Runs (HR)1788156.0666667
Runs Batted In (RBI)52424572.8
Stolen Bases (SB)792291.9
Batting Average (BA)0.229300.2486
On-Base Percentage (OBP)0.304270.3199
Slugging Percentage (SLG)0.401200.414
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS)0.705230.7339333333
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+)9210099.86666667

Tampa Bay Rays

StatValueMLB RankLeague Average
Games Played131
Runs Per Game (R/G)5.3244.604666667
Home Runs (HR)1904156.0666667
Runs Batted In (RBI)6685572.8
Stolen Bases (SB)134391.9
Batting Average (BA)0.25940.2486
On-Base Percentage (OBP)0.3350.3199
Slugging Percentage (SLG)0.44740.414
On-base Plus Slugging (OPS)0.77840.7339333333
On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+)11510099.86666667

Starting Pitchers

TeamPitcherHandWins (W)Losses (L)Games Started (GS)Earned Run Average (ERA)Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9)Walks Per Nine Innings (BB/9)Walks and Hits Per Innings Pitched (WHIP)Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)Expected Earned Run Average (xERA)Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB)Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA)
New York YankeesCarlos RodonL1476.277.094.911.426.065.620.595.73
Tampa Bay RaysZack LittellR2383.577.640.511.133.7513.92

Bullpen Rankings

TeamRanking
New York Yankees11
Tampa Bay Rays22

MLB Betting Model Prediction Full Game

TeamProjected MLB Model Win%Projected US OddsProjected Decimal OddsProjected Over Under – Total Runs for Full Game
New York Yankees35.94%1782.789.81
Tampa Bay Rays64.04%-1781.56

Betting Analysis

Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Tampa Bay Rays. The first half betting value is also on the Tampa Bay Rays.

BEST BETS

  • Tampa Bay Rays (Littell) -114
  • Tampa Bay Rays (Littell) 1st5 -123

AI Prediction

Remember that AI prediction is independent from my MLB betting model and it is your prediction based on available stats I gave you and compared to sportsbook odds.

Bookies odds:

  • New York Yankees: 105 (2.05)
  • Tampa Bay Rays: -114 (1.88)

Comparing the bookies’ odds to the stats provided, the AI prediction also sees value in backing the Tampa Bay Rays. Their offensive stats rank much higher in the league compared to the New York Yankees, and the starting pitcher for the Rays, Zack Littell, has a much more favorable pitching record compared to Carlos Rodon of the Yankees.

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