White Sox vs Marlins Prediction

Our White Sox vs Marlins Prediction highlights a close matchup. The MLB betting model gives the White Sox a 59.81% chance to win, while the Marlins have a 40.19% probability. With Garrett Crochet’s dominance and Yonny Chirinos’ solid performance, expect a thrilling game. Bet smartly based on these insights.


As we head into the summer months, the MLB season is heating up, and today’s game between the Chicago White Sox and the Miami Marlins promises to be an exciting matchup. Our White Sox vs Marlins Prediction will delve into the key stats, pitching matchups, and offensive capabilities of both teams to help you make informed betting decisions. With Garrett Crochet taking the mound for the White Sox and Yonny Chirinos pitching for the Marlins, this game is set to be a thrilling contest. Let’s break down the numbers and see where the value lies for bettors.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Saturday, July 6, 2024
Ballpark: loanDepot Park
Away Team: Chicago White Sox
Home Team: Miami Marlins

Decimal Odds:

  • Chicago White Sox: 1.59
  • Miami Marlins: 2.45

US Odds:

  • Chicago White Sox: -169
  • Miami Marlins: 145

Note: Odds can change. Always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Garrett Crochet – Chicago White Sox

Garrett Crochet, the young left-handed pitcher for the White Sox, has been a standout this season with an ERA of 3.02. His advanced stats show why he’s been so effective:

  • SIERA: 2.37
  • xFIP: 2.33
  • K/9: 12.52
  • BB/9: 1.78
  • WHIP: 0.93
  • GB/FB: 1.2
  • xERA: 2.38

Crochet’s ability to strike out batters at a high rate while maintaining a low walk rate makes him a formidable opponent on the mound. His WHIP and xERA further underscore his dominance, suggesting he’s been slightly unlucky and could perform even better going forward.

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Yonny Chirinos – Miami Marlins

On the other side, Yonny Chirinos, a right-handed pitcher for the Marlins, has posted a solid ERA of 3.77 this season. Let’s look at his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.04
  • xFIP: 4.43
  • K/9: 9.42
  • BB/9: 2.51
  • WHIP: 1.67
  • GB/FB: 0.61
  • xERA: 3.66

Chirinos’ stats reveal a pitcher who relies more on control and inducing weak contact rather than overpowering hitters. His higher WHIP and lower ground ball rate compared to Crochet indicate that he allows more baserunners and is more prone to giving up hits.

Bullpen Matchup

When considering the bullpen, the Miami Marlins have a slight edge over the Chicago White Sox:

  • Chicago White Sox Bullpen Rank: 20th
  • Miami Marlins Bullpen Rank: 13th

The Marlins’ bullpen has been more reliable, ranking 13th overall compared to the White Sox’s 20th rank. This could be a crucial factor late in the game, especially if the starters exit early or the game goes into extra innings.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Offensive Rankings

Chicago White Sox:

  • Overall Rank: 29th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 28th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 30th

Miami Marlins:

  • Overall Rank: 29th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 30th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 27th

Both teams have struggled offensively this season, ranking near the bottom in overall offensive production. The White Sox have particularly struggled against right-handed pitchers, while the Marlins have found it tough against left-handed pitching.

White Sox vs Marlins Prediction

Betting Analysis and Model Projections

Our MLB betting model gives a detailed probability analysis for this game:

  • Chicago White Sox (Garrett Crochet): 59.81% probability to win
  • Miami Marlins (Yonny Chirinos): 40.19% probability to win

MLB Model Projected Odds:

  • Chicago White Sox: -149 (1.67 in decimal)
  • Miami Marlins: 149 (2.49 in decimal)

Based on these probabilities, the model suggests that the Chicago White Sox have a slightly higher chance of winning this game, but the current odds offer more value on the Miami Marlins.

Recommended MLB PICK

  • Side: Miami Marlins
  • Pitcher: Yonny Chirinos
  • Odds: 145
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.11
  • Confidence: No value, just a bold opinion

While the model favors the White Sox slightly, the value bet based on the odds lies with the Marlins at 145. However, it’s essential to note that this is a bold opinion rather than a highly confident pick.

Conclusion: White Sox vs Marlins Prediction

Our White Sox vs Marlins Prediction provides a comprehensive analysis to guide your betting decisions for this game. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, with the White Sox featuring a stronger starting pitcher in Garrett Crochet and the Marlins boasting a slightly better bullpen. Offensively, both teams have struggled, making this a potentially low-scoring affair.

Always use the White Sox vs Marlins Prediction as a tool to enhance your betting strategy and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the season. For those interested in learning how to bet analytically with sports betting models, consider checking out our sports betting courses.

Whether you decide to back the White Sox or take a chance on the Marlins, make sure to base your decision on a thorough analysis of the stats and current odds. Happy betting!

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