White Sox vs Guardians Prediction July 2

For the White Sox vs Guardians Prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 71.45% chance of winning, with projected odds of -250. Conversely, the White Sox have a 28.55% probability, translating to odds of 250. Bet confidently on the Guardians with Carlos Carrasco starting.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

As baseball fans gear up for an exciting showdown on Tuesday, July 2, 2024, all eyes are on the White Sox vs Guardians Prediction. The Chicago White Sox will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Current sportsbook odds show the Guardians as the favorites with decimal odds of 1.50 (-200 US odds), while the White Sox are the underdogs with decimal odds of 2.75 (175 US odds). Remember, odds can change, so always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bets.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Chris Flexen (Chicago White Sox)

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.45

Carlos Carrasco (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.27

Advanced Stats Comparison

Analyzing the advanced stats of both starting pitchers provides deeper insights into their performance beyond basic ERA.

Chris Flexen

  • SIERA: 4.99
  • xFIP: 5.08
  • K/9: 6.94
  • BB/9: 3.84
  • WHIP: 1.49
  • GB/FB: 0.74
  • xERA: N/A

Chris Flexen has shown some struggle on the mound this season, with a SIERA of 4.99 and an xFIP of 5.08. His strikeout rate (K/9) stands at 6.94, while his walk rate (BB/9) is relatively high at 3.84. His WHIP of 1.49 indicates that he allows a fair amount of baserunners, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) is 0.74.

Carlos Carrasco

  • SIERA: 4.4
  • xFIP: 4.32
  • K/9: 6.94
  • BB/9: 2.96
  • WHIP: 1.4
  • GB/FB: 1.45
  • xERA: 5

Carlos Carrasco, on the other hand, has slightly better advanced metrics. His SIERA is 4.4 and his xFIP is 4.32, both lower than Flexen’s. Carrasco matches Flexen’s strikeout rate (K/9) at 6.94 but has a better walk rate (BB/9) of 2.96. His WHIP of 1.4 is also slightly better, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) is significantly higher at 1.45, indicating a greater ability to induce ground balls.

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Bullpen Matchup

Chicago White Sox Bullpen

  • Rank: 18

Cleveland Guardians Bullpen

  • Rank: 1

The bullpen matchup heavily favors the Cleveland Guardians, who boast the best bullpen in the league, ranked first overall. In contrast, the White Sox bullpen is ranked 18th, indicating a significant gap in late-game pitching reliability.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Chicago White Sox

  • Overall Rank: 29
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 29
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 30

Cleveland Guardians

  • Overall Rank: 7
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 4
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 11

Offensively, the White Sox have struggled mightily this season, ranking 29th overall, and dead last (30th) against right-handed pitchers, which does not bode well against the right-handed Carlos Carrasco. The Guardians, however, have been strong offensively, ranking 7th overall, 4th against left-handed pitchers, and 11th against right-handed pitchers.

White Sox vs Guardians Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for White Sox vs Guardians Prediction

Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)

  • Baseball Betting Model Probability: 28.55%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 250
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 3.50

Cleveland Guardians (Carlos Carrasco)

  • Baseball Betting Model Probability: 71.45%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -250
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.40

Our MLB betting model assigns a 71.45% probability to the Cleveland Guardians winning this game, projecting US odds of -250 (decimal odds of 1.40). Conversely, the model gives the White Sox a 28.55% chance of winning, translating to US odds of 250 (decimal odds of 3.50).

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Side: Cleveland Guardians

  • Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
  • Odds: -200
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.43
  • Confidence: Good value

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is the Cleveland Guardians with Carlos Carrasco starting, at odds of -200. The Adjusted Kelly Criterion calculated value of 1.43 indicates good value on this bet.

Conclusion for White Sox vs Guardians Prediction

In conclusion, our White Sox vs Guardians Prediction strongly favors the Cleveland Guardians to win this matchup. The advanced pitching stats, bullpen rankings, and offensive metrics all lean heavily towards the Guardians. Remember to use the White Sox vs Guardians Prediction as a guide, and always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds while taking advantage of promotions during the betting season. If you’re looking to bet like a pro, consider exploring sports betting models and courses to enhance your analytical skills.

For more detailed MLB bets and first half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model on Google Sheets to make your own baseball betting projections. Betting smartly with a well-informed model can significantly increase your chances of success in the long run.

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