The allure of NFL betting is undeniable. Every season, millions of dollars are wagered on games, player performances, and season outcomes. But with such a vast array of betting options, how does one determine what NFL bets to make?

Let’s unravel this mystery.

The Essence of +EV and its Importance

At the heart of professional betting lies the concept of positive Expected Value (+EV). Simply put, when you place a bet that has a +EV, you’re wagering in situations where you have a clear advantage over the bookmaker in the long run. The ultimate goal for an NFL bettor is to consistently identify and bet on these +EV opportunities.

Beating the Closing Line

Another significant aspect of NFL betting is the ability to beat the closing line. This means getting better odds on your bets than what’s available when the game starts. If you can consistently achieve this, it’s a good indicator that you’re on the right track for long-term profitability. The logic is simple: if you’re consistently getting better odds than the market, you’re making valuable bets.

Types of NFL Bets to Consider

  • Moneyline Bets: These are straightforward wagers on which team will win the game. Although simple, finding value can be challenging in a sharp market like the NFL.
  • Point Spread Bets: This involves handicapping where a team is either given a deficit or a head start. The key is to find mismatches and overreactions in the market.
  • Over/Under Bets: Here, you’re wagering on the total points scored in the game. Understanding team dynamics, such as offensive and defensive capabilities, is crucial.
  • Prop Bets: These are bets on specific outcomes within the game, like how many touchdowns a player will score. They can offer value, especially if you’ve done your player research.


In the high-stakes world of NFL betting, the pathway to success revolves around a disciplined approach, understanding market dynamics, and always seeking out +EV opportunities.

Always remember: it’s not about the number of bets you win, but the quality of each bet you place. Aim to make bets that have a high probability of beating the closing line, and you’re setting yourself up for long-term success in this sharp market.

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