Virginia and Maryland are set to face off this weekend in an ACC matchup. Our A.I. prediction model has crunched the numbers to determine which team has the edge.
Key Factors in the Prediction
There are a few key factors that go into our A.I. prediction model:
Expected Points Calculation
We look at each team’s offense and defense using advanced metrics to determine their expected points scored and allowed.
For offense, we calculate the difference between a team’s points scored per game and the average total points scored across all teams. This gives us a relative metric for how much above or below average a team’s offense is.
We do the same calculation for defense using points allowed. A positive number means they allow fewer points than average, while a negative number means they allow more.
Home Field Advantage
Home field advantage is worth about 2-3 points in college football. We factor this into the prediction by adding points for the home team and subtracting for the away team.
In this game, Maryland has home field advantage.
Putting it all together, our model predicts that Maryland will defeat Virginia by a score of 28-18.
Maryland’s offense has been very efficient this year, scoring over 7 points above average after adjusting for competition. Their defense has been about average.
Virginia has a good defense that allows 2 fewer points than average, but their offense has struggled.
With home field advantage, Maryland has the edge in this ACC showdown.
College Football Bets: Small Value with Virgina +14.5 as away underdog pick.
The Bottom Line
Our A.I. prediction model favors Maryland by 10 points over Virginia. Look for the Terrapins’ offense to overpower the Cavaliers’ defense in this matchup.