Twins vs Mariners Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Minnesota Twins a slight edge over the Seattle Mariners in the June 28, 2024, matchup. With Bailey Ober on the mound, the Twins have a 50.81% win probability, making them a solid value bet at 110 odds. Use our Twins vs Mariners Prediction for informed betting.


Welcome to our comprehensive analysis of the Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Friday, June 28, 2024. In this exciting MLB matchup, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Our detailed breakdown will cover everything from starting pitchers to bullpen matchups, offensive performance, and betting probabilities. If you’re looking to make an informed bet on this game, you’ve come to the right place.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the Twins vs Mariners Prediction, let’s take a look at the game information and current sportsbook odds. Remember, odds can fluctuate, so always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bet.

  • Date: Friday, June 28, 2024
  • Ballpark: T-Mobile Park

Sportsbook Odds

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Minnesota Twins2.10110
Seattle Mariners1.75-133

Starting Pitchers

Minnesota Twins: Bailey Ober

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.50

Advanced MLB Stats for Bailey Ober

  • SIERA: 3.68
  • xFIP: 3.92
  • K/9: 9.11
  • BB/9: 2.2
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 0.64
  • xERA: 3.78

Bailey Ober, a right-handed pitcher for the Twins, has shown promising stats this season. His SIERA of 3.68 and xFIP of 3.92 indicate that his ERA might be slightly inflated due to bad luck or defensive issues. With a K/9 rate of 9.11, Ober can generate strikeouts effectively, while his BB/9 of 2.2 shows good control. His WHIP of 1.11 and xERA of 3.78 suggest he’s a reliable pitcher, though he does give up more fly balls than ground balls, with a GB/FB ratio of 0.64.

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Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.71

Advanced MLB Stats for Logan Gilbert

  • SIERA: 3.46
  • xFIP: 3.4
  • K/9: 8.38
  • BB/9: 1.78
  • WHIP: 0.89
  • GB/FB: 1.11
  • xERA: 3.14

Logan Gilbert, another right-handed pitcher, has been stellar for the Mariners this season. His SIERA of 3.46 and xFIP of 3.4 are very close to his ERA, indicating consistent performance. Gilbert’s K/9 rate of 8.38 is solid, and his BB/9 rate of 1.78 shows excellent control. His WHIP is an impressive 0.89, and his xERA of 3.14 suggests he has been highly effective. Gilbert also has a favorable GB/FB ratio of 1.11, indicating he induces more ground balls than fly balls.

Bullpen Matchup

Minnesota Twins Bullpen

  • Rank: 10th

The Twins bullpen ranks 10th in MLB, showcasing depth and reliability. This ranking suggests they can effectively manage late-game situations and provide strong support for Bailey Ober.

Seattle Mariners Bullpen

  • Rank: 12th

The Mariners bullpen is not far behind, ranking 12th in the league. While slightly lower than the Twins, this ranking indicates they also have a capable bullpen that can handle the pressures of late innings.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Minnesota Twins

  • Overall Rank: 18th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 5th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 10th

The Twins’ offense ranks 18th overall but shows strength against left-handed pitchers, ranking 5th. Against right-handed pitchers like Logan Gilbert, they rank 10th, indicating a solid but not overwhelming offensive capability.

Seattle Mariners

  • Overall Rank: 22nd
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 24th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 17th

The Mariners’ offense ranks 22nd overall and struggles significantly against left-handed pitchers, ranking 24th. Against right-handed pitchers, they rank 17th, which is slightly better but still below average.

Twins vs Mariners Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Twins vs Mariners Prediction

Using our MLB Betting Model, we have calculated the probabilities and projected odds for the Twins vs Mariners Prediction.

TeamProbabilityMLB Model Projected US OddsMLB Model Projected Decimal Odds
Minnesota Twins50.81%-1031.97
Seattle Mariners49.19%1032.03

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Based on our MLB Betting Model, we recommend betting on the Minnesota Twins for this matchup.

  • Side: Minnesota Twins
  • Pitcher: Bailey Ober
  • Odds: 110
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.61
  • Confidence: Solid Value

Our model indicates that there is solid value in betting on the Twins, with Bailey Ober on the mound. The calculated probability gives the Twins a slight edge, making this a recommended pick.

Conclusion for Twins vs Mariners Prediction

In conclusion, our Twins vs Mariners Prediction leans towards the Minnesota Twins as the better betting option for this game. While both teams have strengths and weaknesses, the Twins’ offensive capabilities against right-handed pitchers, coupled with Bailey Ober’s solid performance metrics, provide a slight advantage. Remember to shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of any bonuses and promotions during the betting season. For those looking to bet analytically and like a pro, consider checking out our sports betting courses and learn how to make your own baseball betting projections.

Use this Twins vs Mariners Prediction as a guide, but always make informed decisions and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own projections.

By keeping these insights in mind and betting smartly, you can enhance your chances of making profitable decisions in the exciting world of MLB betting.

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