Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction

For the Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Twins a 60.74% win probability against the Blue Jays’ 39.26%. Joe Ryan faces Yusei Kikuchi in a pitching duel. The Twins’ strong bullpen and effective offense against lefties make them the smart moneyline pick.


The Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction for Friday, May 10, 2024, is shaping up to be an exciting showdown between the Minnesota Twins and the Toronto Blue Jays. With Joe Ryan and Yusei Kikuchi taking the mound for their respective teams, the game will feature strong pitching and critical bullpen strategies at Rogers Centre.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Friday, May 10, 2024
  • Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada
  • Away Team: Minnesota Twins (Moneyline odds: 1.91, -110)
  • Home Team: Toronto Blue Jays (Moneyline odds: 1.85, -118)

Note: Odds can change frequently. Always check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

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Starting Pitchers Overview

Minnesota Twins: Joe Ryan (RHP)

  • ERA: 3.54
  • SIERA: 2.91
  • xFIP: 3.10
  • K/9: 10.18
  • BB/9: 1.33
  • WHIP: 1.01
  • GB/FB: 0.82
  • xERA: 2.45

Joe Ryan has demonstrated consistent control and a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio, making him a significant asset for the Twins’ pitching rotation. His advanced stats, such as SIERA and xERA, suggest he’s pitching even better than his traditional ERA indicates.

Toronto Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (LHP)

  • ERA: 2.72
  • SIERA: 3.10
  • xFIP: 2.87
  • K/9: 9.76
  • BB/9: 2.04
  • WHIP: 1.16
  • GB/FB: 1.53
  • xERA: 2.95

Yusei Kikuchi, the left-handed ace for the Blue Jays, has impressed with his low ERA and ability to limit hard contact. His groundball tendencies and solid strikeout numbers make him a tough pitcher to handle.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Minnesota Twins: Ranked 1st
  • Toronto Blue Jays: Ranked 28th

The Minnesota Twins boast the top-ranked bullpen, while the Blue Jays are near the bottom, a discrepancy that could play a crucial role late in the game.

Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup Analysis

Minnesota Twins

  • Overall Rank: 11th
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 4th
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 15th

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Overall Rank: 19th
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 11th
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 19th

The Twins have a clear edge when facing left-handed pitching like Yusei Kikuchi, while the Blue Jays have struggled against both types of pitchers this season.

MLB Betting Model Probability for Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction

Model Projections

  • Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan): 60.74% probability
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -155
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.65
  • Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi): 39.26% probability
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 155
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.55

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline Value Pick:

  • Side: Minnesota Twins
  • Pitcher: Joe Ryan
  • Odds: -110
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: 1.76
  • Confidence Level: Good value

Conclusion: Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction

In this Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Twins present excellent value on the moneyline with Joe Ryan on the mound. With a significant bullpen advantage and a lineup adept at facing left-handed pitchers, the Twins are a strong pick. However, it’s always crucial to shop for the best betting odds and be strategic when wagering. Consider checking out advanced sports betting models and tools to enhance your predictions further.

For the final MLB bets and first-half picks, please consult the “MLB Picks” page or get the MLB Betting Model to calculate your own baseball betting projections.

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