Friday, September 23, 2022

Guaranteed Field, Chicago IL, 8:10 PM ET

The Detroit Tigers will take on the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday, September 23rd.

The Chicago White Sox will look to get back on track against the Detroit Tigers in the first of a three-game series at home. The White Sox are coming off a tough series against the Cleveland Guardians, losing all three games.

They’ll need to bounce back against a Tigers team that has struggled all season long. The White Sox still have a chance to reach the Wild Card spot and playoffs, but the recent losses against the Guardians have pushed them back. This series is very important for them. They’ll start with Lucas Giolito on the mound, while the Tigers will start with Eduardo Rodriguez.

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Matchup

The White Sox are 76-74 on the season, while the Tigers are 57-92.

The Tigers have been awful on the road this season, with a record of only 27-47. The White Sox, on the other hand, have been better on the road (41-34) than at home (35-40).

Betting Odds

  • Detroit Tigers +154
  • Chicago White Sox -168
  • Over/Under Line 7.5

The Chicago White Sox are home favorites of -168, while the Detroit Tigers are underdogs +154 in their matchup on 9/23/2022. With the total runs set at 7.5.

Pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Lucas Giolito

Left-handed pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez will start for the Tigers, while right-hander Lucas Giolito will get the nod for the White Sox.

pitching matchup Eduardo Rodriguez vs Lucas Giolito

If we check their records and performance, both pitchers have ERA 4.00 and at the first look Eduardo Rodriguez looks better with lower ERA. But ERA doesn’t tell us the whole picture about this game.

Eduardo Rodriguez, left handed pitcher for Tigers 3-5, 4.35 ERA this season. But taking into account other ERA metrics and strikeouts rate, we have better pitcher with Lucas Giolito here.

Lucas Giolito has higher ERA than Rodriguez (10-9 5.07 ERA), but his strikeout rate, bases on balls, expected ERA, expected FiP, FiP and Skilled Interactive ERA shows that White Sox will have slightly better pitcher on the mound.

Not only that Giolito is slightly better based on these numbers, he has been better lately. In his last 3 starts his ERA is 3.45.

Bullpen support

Eduardo Rodriguez averaged 5.07 inning per game this season, while Lucas Giolito averaged little bit more inning per game (5.3), so we should not ignore relievers in 9 inning game. Based on my ratings, which takes into account different pitching stats, we have two average bullpens with no significant advantage on any side.

So it comes all down to the hitting teams.

Hitting Matchup

This is the area of the game, where I think Chicago White Sox will have the advantage. First of all, they score more runs this season and they have better overall team.

White Sox score 4.38 runs per game, while Detroit Tigers only 3.38 to the season. This is 1 run difference in scoring this season between those two teams.

When it comes to home road matchup, the difference is the same (White Sox 4.25 at home, Tigers 3.23 on the road)

But the biggest difference I see in situational hitting. Tigers will face right handed pitcher and they are not doing great against them these season. If we look at their numbers, they are pretty solid against left handed pitchers (Tigers vs LHP 4.19). But they only score 3.11 against righties.

Today they will face right handed pitcher, who has been playing well lately and we should not forget that this is an important game for White Sox. Detroit are out of the race and are playing just for fans.

Chicago White Sox on the other side have interestingly better numbers against left handed pitchers. They score 5.13 runs vs LHP compared to 4.18 runs when they face RHP.

MLB betting model prediction

mlb betting model prediction: tigers vs white sox

Based on my MLB betting model, I give Chicago White Sox 66.39% of chance to win these game. This gives me fair betting lines White Sox -198 and Tigers +198.

Comparing my winning percentages with online sports betting odds, I have a value with White Sox -168. They should be slightly bigger favorite in this game.

Interesting betting trends

Important: When it comes to making predictions about MLB games, it’s important to keep in mind that betting trends are not the best indicator of what will happen. They have very little or none predictive power and should be taken with caution. However, they can be useful in seeing some interesting angles.

  • White Sox are 12-7 in September
  • Tigers are 7-12 in September
  • Tigers lost 44 out of last 60 games vs White Sox, including 25 out of last 32 meetings in Chicago
  • White Sox lost only 18 of their last 69 games versus weak teams (record below .400)

Recommended Picks and Best Bets

White Sox are better overall team. They also need a win in this game if they still hope for a Wild Card spot and postseason.

They will have small pitching advantage, because Lucas Golitio has slightly better numbers and he has been playing better lately.

This matchup is in White Sox’s favour when it comes to hitting. Better hitting team and good situation versus left handed pitcher. Tigers on the other side are playing slightly better vs lefites, but they will have to face right handed pitcher today.

Taking into consideration all available information and my baseball sports betting model, the best in this game is on home team moneyline.

Best Bet:

  • Chicago White Sox -168

In order to maximize profits, it’s important to shop around for the best lines and take advantage of any other advantages offered by sportsbooks.

Play responsibly and never follow blindly anyone. Always make your own research before you make actual bets. I also recommend to learn how sports betting works, and how to use numbers in betting, before you risk any of your money.

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