Tigers vs Yankees Prediction

In our Tigers vs Yankees prediction, the MLB betting model assigns a 46.09% win probability to the Tigers and 53.91% to the Yankees. With odds of +117 for the Tigers and -117 for the Yankees, the game promises a tight contest with no clear high-value bet identified.


As we look forward to the exciting matchup at Yankee Stadium this Sunday, the “Tigers vs Yankees Prediction” features two standout left-handed pitchers, Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers and Nestor Cortes of the New York Yankees. With the sportsbooks setting the odds, it’s crucial to dive deep into the pitchers’ performances, team dynamics, and betting insights to forecast this game.

Game Information and Betting Odds Overview

Date: Sunday, May 5, 2024
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York
Detroit Tigers Odds: +110 (Decimal: 2.10)
New York Yankees Odds: -130 (Decimal: 1.77)

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Starting Pitchers Analysis

Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers

  • ERA: 1.72
  • SIERA: 2.71
  • xFIP: 2.75
  • Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9): 10.06
  • Walks per Nine Innings (BB/9): 1.47
  • WHIP: 0.74
  • Ground Ball/Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 1.15
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 2.19

Nestor Cortes – New York Yankees

  • ERA: 3.86
  • SIERA: 3.80
  • xFIP: 3.95
  • K/9: 7.93
  • BB/9: 1.50
  • WHIP: 1.10
  • GB/FB: 0.67
  • xERA: 2.77

Comparative Analysis of Pitchers

Tarik Skubal shows a distinct advantage over Nestor Cortes in nearly every key metric, suggesting that he could dominate the game, minimizing the Yankees’ offensive opportunities. His superior strikeout rate and lower ERA are particularly noteworthy.

Team Dynamics and Matchup

Bullpen Performance

  • Detroit Tigers Bullpen Rank: 21
  • New York Yankees Bullpen Rank: 23

Offensive Matchup

  • Overall Team Offense – Detroit Tigers Rank: 25
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers – Tigers Rank: 14
  • New York Yankees Overall Offense Rank: 7
  • Yankees Against Left-Handed Pitchers: 14

Despite the Tigers’ lower overall offensive rank, both teams perform similarly against left-handed pitchers, which could level the playing field when Skubal and Cortes are on the mound.

Tigers vs Yankees Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Model Predictions

  • Detroit Tigers Win Probability: 46.09%
  • New York Yankees Win Probability: 53.91%
  • Model Projected Odds for Tigers: +117 (Decimal: 2.17)
  • Model Projected Odds for Yankees: -117 (Decimal: 1.85)

Betting Recommendations

Based on the MLB betting model and adjusted calculations, there’s no high-value bet identified for this game. However, the close matchup suggests that betting on either side could be more about personal belief and less about clear statistical backing.

Conclusion: Tigers vs Yankees Prediction

In making your “Tigers vs Yankees Prediction,” consider the advanced metrics and unique dynamics of this game. While the Yankees are favored at home, the Tigers, led by Skubal’s stellar pitching, present a formidable challenge. Always ensure to check the latest odds and consider line movements before placing any bets. Remember, no sports pick is infallible. Utilize this analysis as a guide and continue to explore sports betting with analytical rigor and strategic insight.

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