Tigers vs Royals Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Detroit Tigers a 51.76% chance to win against the Kansas City Royals on May 21, 2024. Despite a tight matchup, Casey Mize’s edge on the mound makes the Tigers the favored pick. Bet on the Tigers with caution, considering current odds and model projections.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Welcome to our detailed Tigers vs Royals Prediction for the matchup on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. This analysis will cover the game information, odds, pitcher comparisons, and betting recommendations.

Game Info

  • Date: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
  • Location: Kauffman Stadium

Sportsbook Odds

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Detroit Tigers1.87-115
Kansas City Royals1.92-109

Odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.5

Kansas City Royals: Alec Marsh

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.43

Advanced Pitching Stats

Casey Mize

  • SIERA: 3.94
  • xFIP: 3.76
  • K/9: 6.6
  • BB/9: 2.06
  • WHIP: 1.19
  • GB/FB: 1.78
  • xERA: 3.67

Alec Marsh

  • SIERA: 4.06
  • xFIP: 3.96
  • K/9: 7.54
  • BB/9: 2.43
  • WHIP: 1.05
  • GB/FB: 0.93
  • xERA: 4.1

Alec Marsh has shown slightly better strikeout ability with a K/9 of 7.54 compared to Mize’s 6.6. However, Marsh also allows more walks per nine innings (BB/9 of 2.43) compared to Mize’s 2.06. Mize’s ability to limit walks and his groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 1.78 could be crucial in this matchup.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Detroit Tigers: Ranked 19th
  • Kansas City Royals: Ranked 29th

The Tigers hold a significant advantage in bullpen performance, with their relievers ranking much higher than the Royals.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Rankings

  • Detroit Tigers: 23rd
  • Kansas City Royals: 11th

Rankings vs. Left Handed Pitchers

  • Detroit Tigers: 25th
  • Kansas City Royals: 21st

Rankings vs. Right Handed Pitchers

  • Detroit Tigers: 17th
  • Kansas City Royals: 21st

The Royals have a stronger overall offensive performance, but the Tigers have a slight edge against right-handed pitchers like Alec Marsh.

Tigers vs Royals Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Tigers vs Royals Prediction


  • Detroit Tigers (Casey Mize): 51.76%
  • Kansas City Royals (Alec Marsh): 48.24%

MLB Model Projected Odds

  • Detroit Tigers: -107 (1.93)
  • Kansas City Royals: 107 (2.07)

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline Value

  • Side: Detroit Tigers
  • Pitcher: Casey Mize
  • Odds: -115
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.37 (no value, just a bold opinion)

The model suggests a slight edge for the Tigers with a 51.76% win probability, making them the preferred pick despite the calculated value suggesting no strong betting value.

Conclusion for Tigers vs Royals Prediction

Use this Tigers vs Royals Prediction as a guide, but always perform your own analysis and shop for the best MLB betting odds. Take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the MLB season. For more detailed picks and insights, check our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model to learn how to calculate odds and make your own betting projections.

Bet responsibly and good luck!

This comprehensive analysis ensures you’re well-equipped with the necessary information to make an informed betting decision for the Tigers vs Royals game.

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