Tigers vs Guardians Prediction

The Tigers vs Guardians Prediction leans heavily toward Cleveland, as the MLB Betting Model estimates a 61.30% win probability for the Guardians with Logan Allen on the mound. With superior offense and bullpen, the Guardians offer good value on the moneyline at -125. Bet smart and check for the best odds!


Game Overview & Sportsbook Odds

On Tuesday, May 7, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. The Tigers vs Guardians Prediction offers valuable insights into this matchup, featuring a duel between Detroit’s right-hander Kenta Maeda and Cleveland’s left-hander Logan Allen. The Guardians enter the game as favorites at odds of 1.80 (-125), while the Tigers are priced at 2.05 (+105).

Decimal Odds

  • Detroit Tigers: 2.05
  • Cleveland Guardians: 1.80

US Odds

  • Detroit Tigers: +105
  • Cleveland Guardians: -125

Odds can fluctuate, so always check multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Kenta Maeda (Detroit Tigers)

  • ERA: 5.02
  • SIERA: 4.21
  • xFIP: 4.16
  • K/9: 6.91
  • BB/9: 2.2
  • WHIP: 1.22
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.03
  • xERA: 4.73

Kenta Maeda has displayed command over his pitches, keeping his walk rate low while maintaining decent groundball and strikeout rates. However, his higher ERA signals that he’s been hittable at times, leading to runs.

Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians)

  • ERA: 5.11
  • SIERA: 4.25
  • xFIP: 4.31
  • K/9: 7.54
  • BB/9: 2.92
  • WHIP: 1.41
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.09
  • xERA: 4.14

Logan Allen has a higher WHIP and walk rate compared to Maeda, but compensates with more strikeouts and improved groundball rates. His xERA is slightly better than Maeda’s, indicating he might be more effective at preventing runs.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Detroit Tigers Bullpen Rank: 22nd
  • Cleveland Guardians Bullpen Rank: 3rd

Cleveland’s bullpen significantly outperforms Detroit’s, ranking near the top of the league. This late-game pitching advantage could be crucial in securing a Guardians victory.

Offensive Matchup

  • Detroit Tigers Overall Rank: 25th
  • Rank vs LHP: 21st
  • Rank vs RHP: 25th
  • Cleveland Guardians Overall Rank: 13th
  • Rank vs LHP: 7th
  • Rank vs RHP: 20th

The Guardians hold a clear edge offensively, particularly against left-handed pitching. Their balanced lineup can produce consistently, while the Tigers’ offense struggles to match up.

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Tigers vs Guardians Prediction

  • Detroit Tigers (Kenta Maeda): 38.69%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: +158
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.58
  • Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen): 61.30%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -158
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.63

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Pick: Cleveland Guardians (-125)
Pitcher: Logan Allen
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.29
Confidence: Good value

According to the MLB Betting Model Analysis, the value lies with Cleveland at -125. The Guardians’ offensive prowess, superior bullpen, and Logan Allen’s strikeout potential provide the necessary ingredients for a reliable wager.

Conclusion for Tigers vs Guardians Prediction

Using the Tigers vs Guardians Prediction will help bettors make informed decisions about this matchup. However, it’s crucial to shop for the best odds and avoid following any single prediction blindly. To refine your baseball betting strategy, take advantage of bonuses, promotions, and my MLB Betting Model to build your projections. Learn to bet analytically like a pro with sports betting models by exploring my sports betting courses and MLB picks page!

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