Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

For the Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, our MLB betting model shows a 53.44% win probability for the Detroit Tigers and 46.56% for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The value pick lies with the Diamondbacks at +138 odds, given their strong performance against left-handed pitching.

In this Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Friday, May 17, 2024, we analyze the key factors influencing the game between the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks. With Tarik Skubal facing Ryne Nelson, we’ll dive into advanced stats, bullpen matchups, and hitting performances to provide the best betting insights.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Detroit Tigers
  • Decimal Odds: 1.67
  • US Odds: -149
  • Home Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Decimal Odds: 2.38
  • US Odds: 138
  • Ballpark: Chase Field

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.02

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.33

Pitchers’ Advanced MLB Stats Comparison

Tarik Skubal

  • SIERA: 2.52
  • xFIP: 2.53
  • K/9: 11.02
  • BB/9: 1.47
  • WHIP: 0.86
  • GB/FB: 1.15
  • xERA: 2.12

Tarik Skubal has been impressive this season with a stellar SIERA of 2.52 and an xFIP of 2.53, indicating his ability to maintain his low ERA. His strikeout rate (K/9) of 11.02 and walk rate (BB/9) of 1.47 showcase his dominance on the mound, complemented by a WHIP of just 0.86.

Ryne Nelson

  • SIERA: 4.29
  • xFIP: 4.21
  • K/9: 6.75
  • BB/9: 2.13
  • WHIP: 1.7
  • GB/FB: 1.15
  • xERA: 4.92

Ryne Nelson, on the other hand, has struggled with a SIERA of 4.29 and an xFIP of 4.21, reflecting his higher ERA. His K/9 rate of 6.75 and BB/9 rate of 2.13 suggest he has been less effective at controlling games, as evidenced by his higher WHIP of 1.7.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Detroit Tigers Bullpen Rank: 21
  • Arizona Diamondbacks Bullpen Rank: 25

The Detroit Tigers’ bullpen, ranked 21st, holds a slight edge over the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen, which is ranked 25th. This factor could play a crucial role in the late innings of the game.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

  • Detroit Tigers
  • Overall Rank: 25
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 25
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 22
  • Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Overall Rank: 11
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 1
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 24

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a significant advantage in hitting, especially against left-handed pitchers, where they rank first overall. This contrasts sharply with the Tigers, who struggle offensively, particularly against left-handed pitchers.

MLB Betting Model Probability for Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

  • Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal)
  • Probability: 53.44%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -115
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.87
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
  • Probability: 46.56%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 115
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.15
Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Pitcher: Ryne Nelson
  • Odds: 138
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.78
  • Confidence: Solid Value

Our MLB betting model suggests that the best value lies with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite their bullpen struggles, their hitting strength against left-handed pitching and the value in the odds make them a solid pick.

Note: For Final Best MLB Bets and First Half Picks, please check our “MLB Picks” Page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets and learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.


In conclusion, for the Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, our analysis favors the Arizona Diamondbacks as the value pick, primarily due to their hitting prowess against left-handed pitchers and the favorable odds. Always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, check our sports betting courses.

Use this Tigers vs Diamondbacks Prediction as a guide and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Happy betting!

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