Tigers vs Astros Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Houston Astros a slight edge with a 50.23% win probability against the Detroit Tigers’ 49.77%. Despite Tarik Skubal’s impressive pitching for Detroit, the Astros’ overall stronger bullpen and offense make them the favored pick for the June 14, 2024 matchup.


When it comes to making informed MLB betting decisions, analyzing key matchups is essential. Our focus today is on the highly anticipated game between the Detroit Tigers and the Houston Astros. This comprehensive Tigers vs Astros prediction will delve into the specifics of the starting pitchers, bullpen matchups, offensive comparisons, and more to provide an insightful analysis for Friday, June 14, 2024.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

The Detroit Tigers will face off against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Let’s take a look at the current odds:

  • Detroit Tigers: 1.83 (Decimal Odds) / -120 (US Odds)
  • Houston Astros: 1.95 (Decimal Odds) / -105 (US Odds)

Please note that odds can fluctuate, so it’s always wise to check the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks to ensure you get the best value.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal, a left-handed pitcher, is having an impressive season with a stellar ERA of 1.92. Here are his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 2.66
  • xFIP: 2.6
  • K/9: 10.85
  • BB/9: 1.69
  • WHIP: 0.89
  • GB/FB: 1.32
  • xERA: 2.44

Skubal’s advanced metrics indicate he is among the elite pitchers this season. His low SIERA and xFIP suggest that his performance is sustainable, while his high strikeout rate (K/9) and low walk rate (BB/9) further solidify his dominance on the mound.

Houston Astros: Hunter Brown

On the other side, Hunter Brown, a right-handed pitcher for the Astros, has had a tougher season with a higher ERA of 5.91. Here are his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.13
  • xFIP: 3.95
  • K/9: 9.59
  • BB/9: 4.63
  • WHIP: 1.56
  • GB/FB: 1.65

Brown’s advanced metrics indicate room for improvement. His higher SIERA and xFIP point to some struggles, particularly with control, as evidenced by his elevated walk rate (BB/9).

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Bullpen Matchup Analysis

Bullpen performance can be a critical factor in the outcome of closely contested games. Here’s how the bullpens rank:

  • Detroit Tigers: 21st
  • Houston Astros: 12th

The Astros hold a significant advantage in the bullpen department. This disparity could play a crucial role late in the game, particularly if the starting pitchers exit early.

Offensive Matchup

Evaluating the offensive capabilities of each team provides additional insight into the Tigers vs Astros prediction:

Detroit Tigers

  • Overall Rank: 20th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 24th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17th

Houston Astros

  • Overall Rank: 12th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 12th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 10th

The Astros have a clear edge in offensive performance, both overall and against specific pitching handedness. This offensive strength, combined with their superior bullpen, could prove decisive.

Tigers vs Astros Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Using our MLB betting model, we’ve calculated the probabilities for the Tigers vs Astros prediction:

  • Detroit Tigers (Tarik Skubal): 49.77%
  • Houston Astros (Hunter Brown): 50.23%

According to the model, the Astros have a slight edge. Here are the projected odds based on our calculations:

  • MLB Model Projected US Odds:
  • Detroit Tigers: 101
  • Houston Astros: -101
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds:
  • Detroit Tigers: 2.01
  • Houston Astros: 1.99

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is the Houston Astros, despite the adjusted Kelly Criterion calculated value indicating no value at -0.22. This suggests it’s a bold opinion rather than a value bet. The current odds for the Astros are -105, which aligns closely with our model’s projection.

Conclusion for Tigers vs Astros Prediction

In summary, the Tigers vs Astros prediction leans towards the Houston Astros, primarily due to their stronger bullpen and superior offensive lineup. Tarik Skubal’s outstanding pitching may keep the Tigers in the game, but the overall team dynamics favor the Astros. Remember, always shop around for the best MLB betting odds and utilize bonuses and promotions to maximize your value.

For more detailed betting tips and insights, visit our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

Use this Tigers vs Astros prediction as a guide, but always make informed decisions based on the latest data and trends. Happy betting!

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