The Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction is stirring interest among NHL fans in Canada as the Ottawa Senators prepare to face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs. This matchup is particularly intriguing, given the Senators’ notable offensive stats and the Maple Leafs’ consistent performance this season. The Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction is not just about the teams’ standings but also about their potential to deliver an exciting and competitive game.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Preview – December 27, 2023

Game Overview

An exciting NHL matchup is on the horizon as the Ottawa Senators face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs. This game, set to take place at the iconic Scotiabank Arena, will see two Eastern Conference teams with differing fortunes this season clash on the ice.

Venue, Time and Odds

  • Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
  • Date & Time: Wednesday, December 27, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET
  • Broadcast Channels: TVAS, SN, and ESPN+
  • Live Stream: Available on Fubo TV
  • Ottawa Senators +143 (the odds can change – check different sportsbooks for the best betting experience)
  • Toronto Maple Lafs -159
  • Totals (Over Under Betting): 6.5
  • Puck Line (NHL spread betting): Toronto Maple Leafs (-1.5) +140

Team Statistics and Standings

Ottawa Senators

  • Season Record: 12-17-0
  • Key Players: Josh Norris, Jakob Chychrun, and Erik Brannstrom
  • Goaltender: Joonas Korpisalo (6-11-0 record, 3.62 GAA, .891 SV%)

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Season Record: 17-8-6
  • Key Players: William Nylander, Auston Matthews, and Matthew Knies
  • Goaltender: Joseph Woll (8-5-1 record, 2.80 GAA, .916 SV%)

Head-to-Head and Team Statistics

  • The season series between the Senators and Maple Leafs is currently tied at 1-1.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs:
    • Power Play Percentage: 26.4% (4th)
    • Penalty Kill Percentage: 79.2% (20th)
    • Faceoff Win Percentage: 53.2% (6th)
  • Ottawa Senators:
    • Power Play Percentage: 17.6% (23rd)
    • Penalty Kill Percentage: 71.3% (31st)
    • Faceoff Win Percentage: 50.6% (14th)

Betting Trends and Insights

  • The Senators have covered the puck line in each of the first two games of this season series.
  • Toronto has been averaging 4.2 goals in their last five games, while Ottawa has been scoring 3.75 goals in their previous four games.
  • Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games recently, with Ottawa allowing 5.0 goals per game and Toronto giving up 4.2 goals per game in their last few outings.

Game Analysis before Final Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction

This matchup promises to be an intriguing one, with both teams showing aggressive offensive tendencies. The Maple Leafs, with their higher power play percentage and better faceoff win percentage, might look to dominate the game. However, the Senators have shown resilience in this series so far and could present a formidable challenge.

Offensive and Defensive Comparison

In this Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction, both teams exhibit impressive offensive capabilities. The Senators average 3.39 goals from 32.31 shots per 60 minutes, demonstrating a potent attack. The Maple Leafs are slightly ahead, scoring 3.49 goals on 31.78 shots per 60 minutes, indicating a similarly efficient offensive setup.

Defensively, the Senators have been allowing more goals, with an average of 3.53 goals against on 30.46 shots per 60 minutes. The Maple Leafs fare slightly better, conceding 3.27 goals on 31.65 shots. This suggests a marginal defensive advantage for the Maple Leafs.

Advanced Metrics Insights

The Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction becomes even more interesting when considering advanced metrics. The Senators have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 50.75 and a Fenwick For percentage (FF%) of 51.6, suggesting competitive puck control. The Maple Leafs are close, with a CF% of 49.95 and FF% of 49.89, making them a formidable opponent in terms of maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities.

Goalie Matchup

The goaltending matchup is a pivotal element in any Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction. Ottawa’s Joonas Korpisalo, with a save percentage of 0.906 and an expected 3.11 goals against, will be key. Toronto’s Martin Jones, holding a 0.89 save percentage and a 3.25 expected goals against, might face challenges against the Senators’ offense.

NHL Betting Model Predictions

Senators vs Maple Leafs Prediction

My NHL betting model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 56.16%, with projected odds of 1.78 (-128 American). Conversely, the Senators have a lower probability of 43.84% and odds of 2.28 (+128 American). However, the model suggests a small calculated value of 0.46.

Best NHL Bet

Despite no significant betting value, an underdog pick on the Ottawa Senators represents a small positive expected value (+EV), especially if the Maple Leafs start with Martin Jones in goal.


In conclusion, the Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction suggests a potentially close game, with the Maple Leafs slightly favored but facing a strong challenge from the Senators. Bettors should consider the teams’ current forms, goaltending matchups, and advanced metrics when making their decisions. It’s always wise to shop for the best odds and consider strategic approaches to betting.

For those looking to refine their betting strategies, exploring sports betting models and educational resources can offer valuable insights for more informed betting decisions.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.