Senators vs Bruins Prediction

Senators vs Bruins Prediction: NHL betting model tips Bruins as favorites with a 58.55% win probability. Senators show a competitive edge with 41.45%. While Bruins are safer, Senators could surprise. Always verify final odds before betting.


In the upcoming NHL clash, the Ottawa Senators are set to face off against the Boston Bruins. This “Senators vs Bruins Prediction” article will delve into the matchup’s dynamics, exploring the statistical analysis and odds provided by top sportsbooks to offer well-founded betting insights.

Game Overview

Match Details

  • Date: Tuesday, April 16, 2024
  • Venue: TD Garden, Boston

Current Betting Odds

  • Ottawa Senators: 2.70 (Decimal), +170 (American)
  • Boston Bruins: 1.48 (Decimal), -208 (American)

Note: Odds are subject to change. Ensure to check the latest odds at trusted bookmakers like Bovada or Betonline.

Statistical Breakdown

High Danger Chances

The Senators and Bruins show contrasting trends in high danger chances per 60 minutes:

  • Ottawa Senators: HDCF/60 – 17 (Rank 18)
  • Boston Bruins: HDCA/60 – 26 (Rank 9)

Team Offense and Defense

Offensive Comparison

  • Ottawa Senators: 2.48 goals per 60 minutes (GF/60), 29.97 shots per 60 minutes (SF/60)
  • Boston Bruins: 3.10 GF/60, 27.05 SF/60

Defensive Comparison

  • Ottawa Senators: 3.26 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60), 28.16 shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60)
  • Boston Bruins: 2.79 GA/60, 29.60 SA/60

Additional Team Stats

  • Ottawa Senators: Corsi For Percentage (CF%) – 52.2, Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) – 52.3, Goal Differential – -0.78, Shots Difference – +1.81
  • Boston Bruins: CF% – 45.11, FF% – 46.21, Goal Differential – +0.31, Shots Difference – -2.55
Senators vs Bruins Prediction

Goalie Matchup

  • Ottawa Senators: Anton Forsberg – Save Percentage (SV%) – 0.885, Expected Goals Against – 3.62
  • Boston Bruins: Linus Ullmark – SV% – 0.913, Expected Goals Against – 2.81

NHL Betting Model and Prediction

Model Outcomes

  • Ottawa Senators: Win Probability – 41.45%, Projected Odds – 2.41 (Decimal), +141 (American)
  • Boston Bruins: Win Probability – 58.55%, Projected Odds – 1.71 (Decimal), -141 (American)

Betting Insights

The betting model suggests a stronger likelihood of a Bruins victory. However, the Senators’ competitive odds and high Corsi and Fenwick percentages indicate potential value in a riskier bet. Given the high expected goals against for both goalies, bettors might also consider over/under wagers on the total goals.

Conclusion: Senators vs Bruins Prediction

Given the comprehensive analysis, the projected outcome leans toward a Bruins win, though it’s not a substantial enough edge to meet the Kelly Criterion recommendation for a qualified bet. As always, bettors are advised to shop for the best odds and keep an eye on any changes in the goalie lineup or team dynamics closer to the game day.

Final Thoughts

When planning your bets for the Senators vs Bruins matchup, consider both the statistical insights and the current odds. While the Bruins appear to be the favorites, the Senators offer interesting variables that could tilt the odds in favor of a more adventurous bet. Stay informed, analyze wisely, and may your bets be as thrilling as the game itself!

This expert analysis provides a deep dive into the Senators vs Bruins prediction for their NHL game on April 16, 2024, offering key insights into the betting dynamics and statistical breakdown for informed betting decisions.

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