For the upcoming fight, our UFC betting model predicts Sean Strickland to win against Paulo Costa with a 65.62% probability. Strickland’s strong striking defense and versatile grappling give him the edge. Bet smart and use our expert analysis for your SEAN STRICKLAND vs PAULO COSTA UFC prediction.

On Saturday, June 1, 2024, UFC fans are in for an electrifying match as Sean Strickland takes on Paulo Costa. This highly anticipated bout has everyone talking, and today we’ll delve into a comprehensive SEAN STRICKLAND vs PAULO COSTA UFC prediction. Let’s explore the stats, betting model insights, and the expert analysis to make an informed prediction for this UFC fight.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Fight Details

  • Date: Saturday, June 1, 2024
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Matchup: Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

Sportsbook Odds

  • Sean Strickland: 1.53 (Decimal) / -189 (US)
  • Paulo Costa: 2.75 (Decimal) / 175 (US)

Note: Odds can change, so always shop around for the best UFC odds on different sportsbooks.

Fighter Statistics Comparison

Analyzing fighter statistics is crucial for making an accurate SEAN STRICKLAND vs PAULO COSTA UFC prediction. Here’s a detailed comparison of both fighters:

Striking and Defense

  • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute:
  • Sean Strickland: 5.91
  • Paulo Costa: 6.20
  • Striking Accuracy:
  • Sean Strickland: 41%
  • Paulo Costa: 58%
  • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute:
  • Sean Strickland: 4.33
  • Paulo Costa: 6.38
  • Striking Defense:
  • Sean Strickland: 62%
  • Paulo Costa: 47%


  • Takedown Average per 15 Minutes:
  • Sean Strickland: 0.85
  • Paulo Costa: 0.47
  • Takedown Accuracy:
  • Sean Strickland: 64%
  • Paulo Costa: 75%
  • Takedown Defense:
  • Sean Strickland: 77%
  • Paulo Costa: 80%
  • Submission Average per 15 Minutes:
  • Sean Strickland: 0.2
  • Paulo Costa: 0

ELO Ratings

  • Sean Strickland: 1575.07
  • Paulo Costa: 1490.97

UFC Betting Model Prediction

Underdog Chance’s Eric, an expert in sports betting, has created a UFC betting model that uses both ELO ratings and logistic regression probabilities to predict fight outcomes. Here are the model’s predictions for this fight:

  • Sean Strickland:
  • ELO UFC Betting Model Probability: 61.87%
  • Logistic Regression UFC Betting Model Probability: 65.62%
  • Paulo Costa:
  • ELO UFC Betting Model Probability: 38.13%
  • Logistic Regression UFC Betting Model Probability: 34.38%

The power of the UFC betting model from Underdog Chance member Eric lies in its reliability when both the ELO model and logistic regression model agree, especially when the odds are between 1.50 and 3.0 (US odds -200 to +200).

Expert Analysis and Fight Prediction

Striking and Defense Analysis

Sean Strickland has a solid striking defense with 62%, which is significantly better than Paulo Costa’s 47%. Strickland also absorbs fewer strikes per minute compared to Costa. Although Costa has a higher striking accuracy, his tendency to absorb more strikes could be detrimental against a technically sound striker like Strickland.

Grappling and Takedown Analysis

Strickland has a slightly higher takedown average and submission attempts per 15 minutes, indicating a more versatile ground game. Costa’s takedown defense is marginally better, but Strickland’s accuracy in executing takedowns could play a crucial role.

Betting Model Insights

Both the ELO and logistic regression models favor Sean Strickland to win, with probabilities exceeding 60%. Given the current odds, betting on Strickland provides value and aligns with the model’s prediction.

Recommended UFC Fight Pick

Based on Eric’s UFC Fight Predictions Betting Model Analysis, the recommended pick for this fight is Sean Strickland to win.


In conclusion, using the SEAN STRICKLAND vs PAULO COSTA UFC prediction as your guide, it’s clear that Strickland has the edge in both striking defense and versatility in grappling. However, never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. For final and accurate UFC picks, learn to use statistics in betting and stay updated with the latest MMA news. Always shop for the best UFC betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions if you bet on UFC. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, and gain the knowledge to build your own betting model to become a long-term winner, check out our sports betting courses.

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