Royals vs Rockies Prediction

Our Royals vs Rockies prediction highlights a 56.54% probability for a Royals win with Seth Lugo pitching, while the Rockies with Austin Gomber hold a 43.46% chance. Our MLB betting model suggests value in betting on the Rockies at +150 odds, given the solid matchup metrics.


The matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Colorado Rockies on Saturday, July 6, 2024, promises to be an intriguing contest. Our Royals vs Rockies prediction aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the game, focusing on the starting pitchers, Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber, and how they might influence the outcome. We will also delve into team performance metrics, bullpen strength, and offensive capabilities to offer a well-rounded view of what to expect from this exciting MLB showdown.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the detailed analysis, let’s take a look at the game information and current sportsbook odds for the Royals vs Rockies prediction:

  • Date: Saturday, July 6, 2024
  • Ballpark: Coors Field

Decimal Odds

  • Kansas City Royals: 1.56
  • Colorado Rockies: 2.50

US Odds

  • Kansas City Royals: -179
  • Colorado Rockies: 150

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks to ensure you get the most favorable terms.

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Kansas City Royals: Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher for the Kansas City Royals, has been in excellent form this season. Here are his key stats:

  • ERA: 2.17
  • SIERA: 3.75
  • xFIP: 3.71
  • K/9: 8.15
  • BB/9: 2.09
  • WHIP: 1.03
  • GB/FB: 1.15
  • xERA: 3.71

Lugo’s advanced metrics suggest he is performing slightly above his expected indicators, which implies a solid but not invincible performance. His strikeout rate (K/9) and walk rate (BB/9) demonstrate a commendable control and ability to limit baserunners, which will be crucial against the Rockies’ lineup.

Colorado Rockies: Austin Gomber

On the other side, Austin Gomber, a left-handed pitcher for the Colorado Rockies, has had a challenging season:

  • ERA: 4.72
  • SIERA: 4.64
  • xFIP: 4.4
  • K/9: 6.06
  • BB/9: 2.46
  • WHIP: 1.32
  • GB/FB: 1.09
  • xERA: 4.88

Gomber’s stats indicate that he has struggled more compared to Lugo, with higher ERA and WHIP values. His lower strikeout rate (K/9) and higher expected ERA (xERA) suggest that the Royals may have more opportunities to score off him, especially in the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

The bullpen performance is another critical factor in our Royals vs Rockies prediction. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in bullpen effectiveness, with the Royals ranked 29th and the Rockies 30th. This parity suggests that the game could be decided by the starting pitchers and the offenses rather than any late-inning heroics or failures.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Kansas City Royals

  • Overall Rank: 17
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 20
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17

Colorado Rockies

  • Overall Rank: 27
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 14
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 29

The Royals have a mid-tier offense overall, but they tend to struggle more against left-handed pitching, which could be a factor considering Gomber’s presence on the mound. Conversely, the Rockies’ offense is generally weaker, but they perform better against left-handed pitchers, although they face a right-handed pitcher in Lugo.

Royals vs Rockies Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Royals vs Rockies Prediction

Using our advanced MLB betting model, we have calculated the following probabilities and projected odds for the game:

  • Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo): 56.54% probability, projected US odds -130, projected decimal odds 1.77
  • Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber): 43.46% probability, projected US odds 130, projected decimal odds 2.30

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our Analysis

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, we recommend placing your moneyline bet on the Colorado Rockies. Despite their underdog status, our model suggests there is solid value in betting on the Rockies with a confidence value of 0.58.

  • Recommended MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
  • Odds: 150

Note: For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB betting model in Google Sheets. This will help you learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

Conclusion for Royals vs Rockies Prediction

Using this Royals vs Rockies prediction can enhance your betting strategy, but it’s essential to never follow anyone’s sports picks blindly. Always shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro and use analytical sports betting models, check out my sports betting courses.


Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.