Royals vs Rays Prediction

The Royals vs Rays prediction for May 25, 2024, sees the Tampa Bay Rays as favorites with a 54.29% win probability according to our MLB betting model. Despite Civale’s high ERA, the Rays’ overall strength and bullpen advantage make them a strong pick at odds of -115.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Royals vs Rays Prediction: The Kansas City Royals will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, May 25, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The odds for this game are currently set with the Royals at 2.06 (US odds: +106) and the Rays at 1.87 (US odds: -115). Please note that odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks before placing your bet.

Starting Pitchers: Brady Singer vs Aaron Civale

Brady Singer (Kansas City Royals)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.70
  • SIERA: 3.29
  • xFIP: 3.14
  • K/9: 9.69
  • BB/9: 2.7
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 1.77
  • xERA: 4.14

Brady Singer has been a standout for the Royals this season, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.70. His advanced stats, including a SIERA of 3.29 and xFIP of 3.14, indicate that his performance is well-supported by underlying metrics. Singer’s ability to strike out batters at a rate of 9.69 K/9, combined with a low walk rate of 2.7 BB/9, highlights his control and dominance on the mound. Additionally, his WHIP of 1.11 and groundball to flyball ratio of 1.77 suggest he effectively limits base runners and induces ground balls.

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Aaron Civale (Tampa Bay Rays)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.92
  • SIERA: 3.82
  • xFIP: 3.73
  • K/9: 9.06
  • BB/9: 2.79
  • WHIP: 1.37
  • GB/FB: 0.88
  • xERA: 4.09

Aaron Civale, on the other hand, has struggled with an ERA of 5.92, though his advanced stats suggest some potential for improvement. Civale’s SIERA of 3.82 and xFIP of 3.73 are significantly better than his ERA, indicating that he may have been somewhat unlucky or let down by his defense. He also maintains a solid strikeout rate of 9.06 K/9 and a reasonable walk rate of 2.79 BB/9. However, his WHIP of 1.37 and lower groundball to flyball ratio of 0.88 could be areas of concern.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Kansas City Royals Bullpen Rank: 29
  • Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen Rank: 15

The bullpen matchup significantly favors the Tampa Bay Rays, whose bullpen is ranked 15th compared to the Royals’ 29th rank. This discrepancy suggests that the Rays are better positioned to maintain leads and manage late-game situations more effectively.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Kansas City Royals

  • Overall Rank: 17
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 18
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 16

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Overall Rank: 1
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 14
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17

Offensively, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the best team overall this season. However, they have shown some vulnerability against right-handed pitchers, ranking 17th in that category. The Royals’ offense has been more consistent, though less spectacular, with middling ranks against both left and right-handed pitchers.

MLB Betting Model Probability for Royals vs Rays Prediction

  • Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer): 45.71%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: +119
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.19
  • Tampa Bay Rays (Aaron Civale): 54.29%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -119
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.84

Based on our MLB betting model, the Tampa Bay Rays have a 54.29% probability of winning this game, making them the favorites.

Royals vs Rays Prediction

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: Tampa Bay Rays
  • Pitcher: Aaron Civale
  • Odds: -115
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.18
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Given the analysis, the recommended MLB pick is the Tampa Bay Rays to win, despite Aaron Civale’s higher ERA. The betting model sees value in the Rays at the given odds.

Conclusion for Royals vs Rays Prediction

Use this Royals vs Rays prediction to inform your betting decisions, but always remember to shop around for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. Betting analytically using sports betting models can improve your chances of success. For those looking to learn how to bet like a pro, consider exploring sports betting courses that teach analytical betting techniques and the use of betting models.

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