Royals vs Mets Prediction

In our Royals vs Mets prediction, the MLB betting model shows a tight contest with the Royals at a 49.96% win probability and the Mets slightly edging out at 50.03%. With both teams almost evenly matched, the Mets offer a tiny value at +106 odds, making them a prudent pick.


As we gear up for the intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets this Sunday, April 14, 2024, at Citi Field, the betting landscape is buzzing with predictions. With the Royals’ Cole Ragans facing off against the Mets’ Jose Butto, this game promises a fascinating pitching duel that could tip the scales in this closely contested game. Let’s dive deep into the Royals vs Mets prediction, examining every angle from pitching to hitting, and unveil where the smart money should go.

Game Information and Odds Overview

Date and Time: Sunday, April 14, 2024
Location: Citi Field, New York

Current Betting Odds:

  • Kansas City Royals: 1.81 Decimal (-123 US)
  • New York Mets: 2.06 Decimal (+106 US)

Note: Odds are subject to change, so it’s crucial to shop for the best lines across different sportsbooks before placing any bets.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Cole Ragans (Kansas City Royals)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 2.63
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.53
  • xFIP: 3.28
  • K/9: 11.12
  • BB/9: 3.34
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 1.31

Jose Butto (New York Mets)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.93
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 5.07
  • xFIP: 4.74
  • K/9: 7.74
  • BB/9: 4.60
  • WHIP: 1.28
  • GB/FB: 1.20

Cole Ragans shows a strong advantage with his higher strikeout rate and better control, suggesting he might handle pressure situations more effectively than Butto.

Royals vs Mets Prediction

Team Performance and Matchup

Bullpen Strength

  • Kansas City Royals: Rank 25
  • New York Mets: Rank 4

The Mets’ bullpen significantly outperforms the Royals’, potentially playing a crucial role in the late innings if the starters exit early.

Offensive Matchup

  • Kansas City Royals: Overall Rank 9
  • vs Left-Handed Pitchers: Rank 19
  • vs Right-Handed Pitchers: Rank 8
  • New York Mets: Overall Rank 17
  • vs Left-Handed Pitchers: Rank 2
  • vs Right-Handed Pitchers: Rank 21

The Royals are more consistent against right-handers, which could challenge Butto, whereas the Mets excel against lefties, setting up an interesting challenge for Ragans.

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Projected Odds:

  • Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans): 49.96% | Projected Odds: +100 (2.00 Decimal)
  • New York Mets (Jose Butto): 50.03% | Projected Odds: -100 (2.00 Decimal)

The model suggests an evenly matched game, indicating no clear favorite as per our advanced simulations.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: New York Mets (Jose Butto)
  • Odds: +106
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.29
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Our model finds a slight edge in backing the Mets, especially with the value provided at these odds.

Conclusion: Royals vs Mets Prediction

In this Royals vs Mets prediction, both teams present compelling cases, but the combination of the Mets’ stronger bullpen and their advantage against left-handed pitchers like Ragans could tip the scale in their favor. Remember, always ensure to check the latest odds and consider this analysis as one part of your betting strategy. For those looking to enhance their betting skills, consider exploring our detailed sports betting courses and tools.

Stay informed, bet wisely, and may your wagers turn profitable!

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