Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets and additionally AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of the time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with a positive CLV of +4.52%.
Betting Odds
Betting odds are set for the game between Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners on August 26, 2023, at T-Mobile Park.
| Team | US Odds | Decimal Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 204 | 3.04 |
| Seattle Mariners | -227 | 1.44 |
Team Performance Analysis
Kansas City Royals
After 130 games, the Royals have struggled offensively, ranking 28th in runs per game (R/G) with 4.02, 28th in home runs (HR) with 125, and 27th in runs batted in (RBI) with 502. However, they have excelled in stolen bases (SB), ranking 5th with 127. Unfortunately, their batting average (BA) of 0.243, on-base percentage (OBP) of 0.3, slugging percentage (SLG) of 0.394, on-base plus slugging (OPS) of 0.694, and adjusted OPS+ of 89 are all below the league averages of 0.2487, 0.3199, 0.414, 0.7339, and 99.93, respectively.
Seattle Mariners
In contrast, the Mariners have fared better offensively after 128 games. They rank 10th in R/G with 4.76, 13th in HR with 161, and 13th in RBI with 586. Their SB count is also respectable at 99, ranking 12th. Despite a BA of 0.244, which is slightly below the league average, their OBP of 0.323, SLG of 0.413, OPS of 0.736, and adjusted OPS+ of 107 are all above or around the league averages.
Pitching Matchup
For the Kansas City Royals, right-handed pitcher Jordan Lyles will start. He has a record of 3 wins and 14 losses in 24 games started, an earned run average (ERA) of 6.2, strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) of 6.01, walks per nine innings (BB/9) of 2.39, a walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) of 1.27, expected fielding-independent pitching (xFIP) of 5.37, expected ERA (xERA) of 5.16, ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) of 0.7, and a skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 5.2.
On the other hand, the Seattle Mariners will start with right-handed pitcher Logan Gilbert. He has a much better record with 11 wins and 5 losses in 25 games started, an ERA of 3.77, K/9 of 8.88, BB/9 of 1.64, WHIP of 1.07, xFIP of 3.73, xERA of 3.73, GB/FB of 1.02, and a SIERA of 3.77.
Bullpen Rankings
In terms of bullpen performance, the Royals rank 28th out of 30 teams, while the Mariners boast the best bullpen in the league, ranking 1st.
MLB Betting Model Prediction
Based on my MLB betting model, the projected win percentages for the full game are 26.43% for the Kansas City Royals and 73.55% for the Seattle Mariners. This translates to projected US odds of 278 and -278, and projected decimal odds of 3.78 and 1.36, respectively. The projected over-under for total runs for the full game is 9.66.
Therefore, the full game moneyline value is on the Seattle Mariners based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis. However, there is no qualified bet for the first half betting value.
Additional AI Prediction
The bookies’ odds are 204 (3.04 decimal) for the Kansas City Royals and -227 (1.44 decimal) for the Seattle Mariners. Given the available stats and compared to sportsbook odds, my AI prediction would also favor the Seattle Mariners as they have a stronger offense, a better starting pitcher, and the best bullpen in the league. This makes the value based on my opinion in favor of the Mariners.
Conclusion
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