Rockies vs White Sox Prediction

Our Rockies vs White Sox Prediction shows a slight edge for the Chicago White Sox. With a 53.47% win probability based on our MLB betting model, the White Sox, featuring Andrew Thorpe, are favored over the Rockies’ Dakota Hudson. For optimal MLB bets, always check updated odds and betting insights.


Introduction

The Rockies vs White Sox Prediction for Friday, June 28, 2024, is a highly anticipated matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox. With both teams struggling to find consistency this season, this game presents an intriguing betting opportunity. As always, it’s essential to stay updated with the latest odds and game information. In this analysis, we will delve into the details, compare starting pitchers Dakota Hudson and Andrew Thorpe, evaluate the bullpens and offensive matchups, and provide our recommended MLB pick based on our betting model.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Friday, June 28, 2024
Ballpark: Guaranteed Rate Field

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Colorado Rockies1.91-110
Chicago White Sox1.87-115

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers

Colorado Rockies: Dakota Hudson

Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
ERA: 5.63

Advanced MLB Stats

  • SIERA: 5.46
  • xFIP: 5.21
  • K/9: 4.81
  • BB/9: 4.46
  • WHIP: 1.58
  • GB/FB: 1.71
  • xERA: 5.52

Dakota Hudson has had a challenging season so far, reflected in his elevated ERA and advanced metrics. His SIERA and xFIP indicate that his high ERA is consistent with his overall performance, suggesting he has not been unlucky but rather consistently underwhelming. His low strikeout rate (K/9 of 4.81) combined with a high walk rate (BB/9 of 4.46) and WHIP (1.58) points to significant struggles in controlling games and preventing base runners.

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Chicago White Sox: Andrew Thorpe

Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
ERA: 5.02

Advanced MLB Stats

  • SIERA: 6.38
  • xFIP: 5.91
  • K/9: 5.65
  • BB/9: 6.91
  • WHIP: 1.53
  • GB/FB: 1.06
  • xERA: 4.4

Andrew Thorpe’s season has been marked by inconsistency, as evidenced by his advanced stats. Despite a slightly better ERA than Hudson, Thorpe’s SIERA and xFIP suggest he has been fortunate to avoid an even higher ERA. His K/9 of 5.65 is modest, but his BB/9 of 6.91 indicates severe control issues, leading to a similar WHIP of 1.53. Thorpe’s groundball to flyball ratio (1.06) suggests he allows a fair amount of airborne contact, which can be risky in a hitter-friendly park like Guaranteed Rate Field.

Bullpen Matchup

When comparing the bullpens, the Chicago White Sox have a clear advantage over the Colorado Rockies.

  • Colorado Rockies Bullpen Rank: 30
  • Chicago White Sox Bullpen Rank: 17

The Rockies have the worst-ranked bullpen in MLB, which severely hampers their chances in close games. Conversely, the White Sox, while not elite, have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen that can hold leads more effectively and provide stability late in games.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Overall Hitting Rankings

  • Colorado Rockies:
  • Overall Rank: 28
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 19
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 30
  • Chicago White Sox:
  • Overall Rank: 29
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 29
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 29

Both teams struggle offensively, but the Rockies are particularly inept against right-handed pitching, ranking last in MLB. The White Sox are slightly better overall but still rank poorly in all scenarios. This matchup does not favor either team significantly, but given that both starting pitchers are right-handed, the White Sox’s slight edge against right-handers could come into play.

Rockies vs White Sox Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Using our MLB betting model, we have calculated the probabilities and projected odds for this game.

  • Colorado Rockies (Dakota Hudson): 46.52%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 115
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.15
  • Chicago White Sox (Andrew Thorpe): 53.47%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -115
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.87

Based on these probabilities, the model favors the Chicago White Sox slightly over the Colorado Rockies.

Recommended MLB Pick

Side: Chicago White Sox
Pitcher: Andrew Thorpe
Odds: -115
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.00 (No value, just bold opinion)

Despite the lack of value according to the Adjusted Kelly Criterion, our analysis and betting model suggest that the Chicago White Sox are the better pick for this game. Their bullpen is significantly better, and they have a slight edge in offensive production against right-handed pitchers.

Conclusion: Rockies vs White Sox Prediction

In our Rockies vs White Sox Prediction, we recommend backing the Chicago White Sox. While neither team is performing exceptionally well, the White Sox’s bullpen advantage and modest offensive edge against right-handed pitching make them the more reliable choice. Always use the Rockies vs White Sox Prediction as a guide and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. It’s crucial to shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the betting season. If you’re interested in learning how to bet like a pro with sports betting models, be sure to check out our sports betting courses.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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