Rockies vs Padres Prediction

Explore our expert Rockies vs Padres prediction based on detailed MLB betting model analysis. With the Padres favored at a 76.69% win probability and Rockies at 23.30%, our model recommends backing San Diego for a potentially profitable bet. Check out our full analysis for the best betting approach!


In today’s anticipated matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres, the focus is on a crucial battle that could influence the standings. As we delve into the Rockies vs Padres prediction, it’s essential to note the pitching duel between Colorado’s Cal Quantrill and San Diego’s Dylan Cease on this beautiful Tuesday evening at Petco Park. Current odds favor the Padres, but as every seasoned bettor knows, the devil is in the details.

Game Details

  • Date: May 14, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
  • Odds: Padres -286, Rockies +215
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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Cal Quantrill, Colorado Rockies

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.94
  • SIERA: 4.69
  • xFIP: 4.51
  • K/9: 6.11
  • BB/9: 3.35
  • WHIP: 1.29
  • Ground Ball/Fly Ball Ratio: 1.4
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 4.13

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.19
  • SIERA: 3.02
  • xFIP: 3.31
  • K/9: 10.95
  • BB/9: 2.92
  • WHIP: 0.75
  • Ground Ball/Fly Ball Ratio: 0.69
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 2.79

From these statistics, it’s clear that Dylan Cease holds a significant edge over Quantrill, boasting superior strikeout rates and better control, which could be pivotal in high-leverage situations.

Team Performance and Matchup

Bullpen Strength

  • Colorado Rockies Bullpen Rank: 29th
  • San Diego Padres Bullpen Rank: 19th

Offensive Comparison

  • Overall Rank: Rockies 27th | Padres 9th
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: Rockies 20th | Padres 26th
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: Rockies 28th | Padres 4th

The Padres’ offense dramatically outperforms the Rockies, especially against right-handers, which aligns poorly for Colorado given both starters throw with their right.

Betting Analysis and Prediction

According to our MLB betting model:

  • Rockies (Cal Quantrill): 23.30% probability | Projected Decimal Odds: 4.29
  • Padres (Dylan Cease): 76.69% probability | Projected Decimal Odds: 1.30

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: San Diego Padres to win
  • Pitcher: Dylan Cease
  • Odds: -286
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.01
  • Confidence: Good value

Conclusion: Rockies vs Padres Prediction

For those following the Rockies vs Padres prediction, it’s crucial to use this analysis as a guide and not as a sole decision-maker. Always ensure to check the latest odds, as they can change leading up to game time. For those interested in taking their betting strategy further, consider exploring detailed betting models or sports betting courses to refine your approach and enhance your decision-making process. Remember, smart betting involves thorough analysis and shopping for the best odds.

Good luck, and enjoy the game!

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