Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Diamondbacks a 70.04% win probability over the Rockies in the upcoming showdown. With projected odds of -234 (1.43 decimal) for the Diamondbacks and +234 (3.34 decimal) for the Rockies, our analysis suggests significant value in backing the Diamondbacks in this matchup.


As we edge closer to the much-anticipated showdown on Sunday, March 31, 2024, between the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field, all eyes are on the starting pitchers: Ryan Feltner for the Rockies and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. This Rockies vs Diamondbacks prediction will dissect the matchup in detail, scrutinizing the starting pitchers, bullpen strength, offensive matchups, and the anticipated outcomes based on advanced MLB statistics and betting model projections.

Starting Pitchers Comparison


Ryan Feltner: A Closer Look

Ryan Feltner, a right-handed pitcher for the Colorado Rockies, brings an ERA of 5.82 to the mound. Advanced metrics offer a deeper insight: with a SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 5.54 and an xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 5.3, Feltner’s performance has room for improvement. His strikeout rate (K/9) stands at 7.89, balanced by a concerning walk rate (BB/9) of 5.82 and a WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.68. Feltner tends to induce more ground balls than fly balls, as indicated by his GB/FB ratio of 1.29, with an expected ERA (xERA) hinting at a potential for better outcomes at 4.64.

Brandon Pfaadt: Analyzing the Diamondbacks’ Prospect

On the opposite side, Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks, also a right-hander, posts a slightly better ERA of 5.7. His advanced stats reveal a sharper edge: a SIERA of 4.25 and an xFIP of 4.37 suggest a more effective control of the game’s outcome. Pfaadt shines with a higher strikeout rate of 9 K/9 and a lower walk rate of 2.5 BB/9. His WHIP stands at a more competitive 1.41, although his tendency to allow more fly balls than ground balls, as shown by a GB/FB ratio of 0.76, could be a point of concern in certain matchups.

Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Strength

When it comes to bullpen reliability, both teams face challenges. The Rockies are ranked 28th, while the Diamondbacks fare slightly better at 23rd. This discrepancy could play a pivotal role in the late innings of the game.

Offensive Capabilities

Offensively, the Diamondbacks hold a significant advantage. Ranked 16th overall and consistently better against both left and right-handed pitchers, they outmatch the Rockies, who sit at the bottom in all offensive categories.

MLB Betting Model and Prediction

According to my MLB betting model, the Arizona Diamondbacks, with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound, have a 70.04% probability of winning, translating to projected odds of -234 (1.43 decimal). The Rockies, led by Ryan Feltner, have a 29.95% chance, with odds at +234 (3.34 decimal). This significant difference suggests a strong lean towards the Diamondbacks as the recommended pick, especially when considering the anticipated sportsbook odds.

Conclusion: Rockies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

This Rockies vs Diamondbacks prediction underscores the importance of analyzing pitchers, bullpens, and offensive matchups in depth. While the Diamondbacks appear to have the upper hand, especially with Pfaadt’s superior metrics and the team’s offensive rankings, betting in baseball requires a nuanced approach. Always compare model probabilities with real-time odds, seek the best value, and consider the full spectrum of available data before placing your bets. And remember, use predictions as a guide, not a gospel. For those looking to refine their betting strategy further, exploring analytical sports betting courses could offer valuable insights.

Always bet responsibly and enjoy the game!

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