Reds vs Yankees Prediction

The Reds vs Yankees prediction for July 2, 2024, highlights a 62.98% win probability for the Yankees, driven by Luis Gil’s strong performance. With superior pitching and offense, the Yankees are favored. Use our MLB betting model for more insights and always check multiple sportsbooks for the best odds.


Welcome to our in-depth analysis of the Reds vs Yankees prediction for the game scheduled on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. This exciting matchup features Graham Ashcraft of the Cincinnati Reds going head-to-head with Luis Gil of the New York Yankees at the iconic Yankee Stadium. With both teams looking to secure a crucial win, our comprehensive breakdown will provide insights into key statistics, pitching matchups, offensive capabilities, and betting odds to help you make an informed decision.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the detailed analysis, let’s take a look at the basic game information and current sportsbook odds. Remember, odds can fluctuate, so always check multiple sportsbooks to get the best MLB odds.

  • Away Team: Cincinnati Reds
  • Home Team: New York Yankees
  • Location: Yankee Stadium
  • Game Date: Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Sportsbook Odds

  • Cincinnati Reds: 2.50 (Decimal Odds) / +150 (US Odds)
  • New York Yankees: 1.50 (Decimal Odds) / -200 (US Odds)

Starting Pitchers: A Detailed Comparison

Cincinnati Reds: Graham Ashcraft

Graham Ashcraft, a right-handed pitcher for the Reds, has had a challenging season with an ERA of 5.45. However, to understand his performance better, let’s delve into some advanced MLB stats:

  • SIERA: 4.44
  • xFIP: 4.40
  • K/9: 6.92
  • BB/9: 2.93
  • WHIP: 1.49
  • GB/FB: 1.49
  • xERA: 5.10
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New York Yankees: Luis Gil

On the other side, Luis Gil has been more consistent for the Yankees with an ERA of 3.15. Here’s a closer look at his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.06
  • xFIP: 4.13
  • K/9: 10.4
  • BB/9: 4.73
  • WHIP: 1.12
  • GB/FB: 0.82
  • xERA: 3.26

Pitching Analysis

While Ashcraft has struggled with a high ERA and average strikeout rates, Gil’s higher strikeout rate and lower WHIP suggest he has better control and effectiveness on the mound. Gil’s ability to miss bats with a K/9 of 10.4 and maintain a low WHIP gives him the edge in this pitching matchup.

Bullpen Matchup

Analyzing the bullpen performances can provide additional insights into potential late-game scenarios. Here’s a look at the rankings:

  • Cincinnati Reds Bullpen: Ranked 13th
  • New York Yankees Bullpen: Ranked 15th

While both teams have relatively similar bullpen rankings, the slight edge goes to the Reds. However, this margin is minimal and may not have a significant impact on the overall outcome.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds’ offense has been less impressive this season:

  • Overall Rank: 23rd
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 15th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 24th

New York Yankees

The Yankees, on the other hand, boast one of the most potent offenses in the league:

  • Overall Rank: 3rd
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 9th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 2nd

Offensive Analysis

The Yankees’ offense clearly outshines the Reds, particularly against right-handed pitchers, where they are ranked 2nd. This stark contrast gives the Yankees a significant advantage in the hitting department.

Reds vs Yankees Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides an insightful projection for this game:

  • Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft): 37.01%
  • New York Yankees (Luis Gil): 62.98%

Projected Odds

  • Cincinnati Reds: +170 (US Odds) / 2.70 (Decimal Odds)
  • New York Yankees: -170 (US Odds) / 1.59 (Decimal Odds)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is the New York Yankees with Luis Gil. Despite the odds of -200, the Yankees’ superior pitching, bullpen support, and offensive firepower make them the favored choice. However, the model indicates no significant value bet on the moneyline at these odds, so it’s suggested to approach with caution.

Conclusion: Reds vs Yankees Prediction

In summary, our Reds vs Yankees prediction points towards a Yankees victory, driven by the advantage in pitching and offense. Always use the Reds vs Yankees prediction as a guideline and shop around for the best MLB betting odds. Remember to take advantage of any promotions and bonuses during the baseball betting season. For those interested in a more analytical approach to sports betting, consider exploring sports betting courses that teach you how to use models to make informed betting decisions.

Always bet responsibly and enjoy the game!


Feel free to check our “MLB Picks” page for the latest updates on best bets and first-half picks. For those interested in learning how to bet like a pro, our comprehensive sports betting courses and MLB betting models available in Google Sheets can help you calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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