Reds vs Yankees Prediction July 4

Our MLB betting model predicts a 59.16% probability for a New York Yankees win against the Cincinnati Reds on July 4, 2024. Despite the Yankees being favorites, the model suggests a slight value in betting on the Reds at +160 odds with Frankie Montas pitching.


Welcome to our comprehensive Reds vs Yankees prediction for Thursday, July 4, 2024. This highly anticipated matchup features two talented right-handed pitchers, Frankie Montas of the Cincinnati Reds and Marcus Stroman of the New York Yankees. Our analysis will dive into the sportsbook odds, advanced pitching stats, bullpen matchups, and offensive rankings to provide you with the best insights for this game.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Thursday, July 4, 2024
  • Ballpark: Yankee Stadium

Odds

  • Cincinnati Reds: 2.60 (Decimal Odds) / +160 (US Odds)
  • New York Yankees: 1.53 (Decimal Odds) / -189 (US Odds)

(Note: Odds can change, always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.)

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati Reds: Frankie Montas

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.23

New York Yankees: Marcus Stroman

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.29
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Advanced Pitching Stats Comparison

Frankie Montas (Cincinnati Reds)

  • SIERA: 4.69
  • xFIP: 4.57
  • K/9: 7.22
  • BB/9: 3.73
  • WHIP: 1.31
  • GB/FB: 1.14
  • xERA: 4.53

Frankie Montas has a solid arsenal, with a strikeout rate (K/9) of 7.22 and a WHIP of 1.31. However, his SIERA and xFIP suggest that he has been somewhat lucky and may not sustain his current ERA.

Marcus Stroman (New York Yankees)

  • SIERA: 4.86
  • xFIP: 4.68
  • K/9: 6.59
  • BB/9: 4.05
  • WHIP: 1.29
  • GB/FB: 1.47
  • xERA: 4.35

Marcus Stroman has been slightly better than Montas in terms of ERA, but his advanced metrics, like SIERA and xFIP, indicate he could face regression. His groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 1.47 is a strength, showing his ability to induce groundballs.

Bullpen Matchup

Cincinnati Reds

  • Bullpen Rank: 12th

New York Yankees

  • Bullpen Rank: 14th

The Cincinnati Reds have a slight edge in bullpen performance, ranking 12th compared to the Yankees’ 14th. This could be a crucial factor in a close game.

Offensive Matchup

Cincinnati Reds

  • Overall Rank: 22nd
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 15th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 27th

New York Yankees

  • Overall Rank: 3rd
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 9th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 3rd

The New York Yankees boast a significantly stronger offense, ranking 3rd overall and 3rd against right-handed pitchers. In contrast, the Reds have struggled offensively, particularly against right-handers, where they rank 27th.

Reds vs Yankees Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Reds vs Yankees Prediction

Cincinnati Reds (Frankie Montas)

  • Probability: 40.83%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: +145
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.45

New York Yankees (Marcus Stroman)

  • Probability: 59.16%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -145
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.69

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline Value: Cincinnati Reds

  • Pitcher: Frankie Montas
  • Odds: +160
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.39
  • Confidence: Tiny Value

Our MLB betting model sees a slight value in picking the Cincinnati Reds at +160 with Frankie Montas on the mound. While the Yankees are the favorites, the potential return on the Reds provides a minor edge according to our calculations.

Conclusion for Reds vs Yankees Prediction

Using our Reds vs Yankees prediction, you can make a more informed betting decision. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the betting season. Remember, our analysis suggests a minor value in betting on the Reds due to the favorable odds, despite the Yankees being the stronger team overall.

For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets. Learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections for yourself.


By following our Reds vs Yankees prediction, you can increase your chances of making a successful bet. Our analysis combines advanced pitching stats, bullpen rankings, and offensive performance to provide a comprehensive overview. If you want to bet like a pro, check out our sports betting courses and learn to use analytical sports betting models.

Stay updated with our latest predictions and always bet responsibly. Enjoy the game!

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