Reds vs Padres Prediction

In today’s Reds vs Padres prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 52.30% probability of winning, compared to the Reds at 47.70%. This close matchup at Petco Park promises an exciting game. Always check current odds before placing bets.


In today’s Reds vs Padres prediction, we delve into a promising matchup slated for April 29, 2024, at Petco Park. With the Cincinnati Reds hitting the road to face the San Diego Padres, the stakes are high, and the odds are tight. The pitching duel between Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo and San Diego’s Matt Waldron adds an intriguing layer to this game, making it a significant draw for MLB enthusiasts and bettors alike.

Game Information and Betting Odds


Date: Monday, April 29, 2024
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Away Team: Cincinnati Reds
Home Team: San Diego Padres
Decimal Odds: Reds 1.93 | Padres 1.91
US Odds: Reds -108 | Padres -110

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Pitching Matchup

Nick Lodolo – Cincinnati Reds

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 2.12
  • SIERA: 3.02
  • xFIP: 3.36
  • K/9: 10.59
  • BB/9: 2.12
  • WHIP: 1.06
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.13
  • xERA: 3.38

Matt Waldron – San Diego Padres

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.96
  • SIERA: 4.35
  • xFIP: 4.42
  • K/9: 8.28
  • BB/9: 3.60
  • WHIP: 1.44
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.91
  • xERA: 4.55

Analyzing the Matchup

Pitching Analysis

Nick Lodolo’s impressive stats, including a low ERA and high strikeout rate, position him as a formidable force. His ability to keep the ball in play and manage walks effectively makes him a crucial asset for the Reds. Conversely, Matt Waldron, despite a higher ERA and WHIP, brings a competitive edge that should not be underestimated.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • Cincinnati Reds: 13th
  • San Diego Padres: 16th

Offensive Rankings

  • Cincinnati Reds: Overall 25th, 16th vs LHP, 25th vs RHP
  • San Diego Padres: Overall 8th, 18th vs LHP, 6th vs RHP

The Padres hold a significant advantage offensively, ranking well above the Reds, particularly against right-handed pitchers. This could play a pivotal role in today’s game, given the pitching matchups and recent bullpen performances.

Reds vs Padres Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probability and Odds

  • Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo): 47.70% chance, Projected Odds – US: +110, Decimal: 2.10
  • San Diego Padres (Matt Waldron): 52.30% chance, Projected Odds – US: -110, Decimal: 1.91

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: San Diego Padres
  • Pitcher: Matt Waldron
  • Odds: -110
  • Confidence: No value, just bold opinion

Conclusion: Reds vs Padres Prediction

As we wrap up our Reds vs Padres prediction, it’s crucial to approach betting with a strategic mindset. While the Padres are slightly favored according to our model, always ensure to shop for the best MLB odds and take full advantage of any available promotions. For those looking to deepen their understanding of sports betting, consider exploring betting courses that use analytical models. Remember, never blindly follow picks and always engage with the betting community to enhance your strategies.

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