Reds vs Mariners Prediction

Explore our detailed Reds vs Mariners Prediction for April 17, 2024. Our MLB betting model shows a near-even match, with the Reds at a 49.53% chance of winning and the Mariners at 50.47%. Get the edge with our expert analysis and find where the true betting value lies.


The awaited MLB face-off between the Cincinnati Reds and the Seattle Mariners is set for Wednesday, April 17, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. This Reds vs Mariners Prediction explores a highly anticipated matchup between pitchers Andrew Abbott and Bryce Miller. With the sportsbooks currently favoring the Mariners, we delve deep into the stats to offer a refined perspective on where the betting value lies.

Game Overview

Matchup and Odds

  • Away Team: Cincinnati Reds | Odds: 2.12 (Decimal), +112 (US)
  • Home Team: Seattle Mariners | Odds: 1.76 (Decimal), -132 (US)
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park

Starting Pitchers

  • Andrew Abbott (Cincinnati Reds): Left Handed Pitcher, ERA 3.69
  • Bryce Miller (Seattle Mariners): Right Handed Pitcher, ERA 4.03

Pitchers’ Analysis

Andrew Abbott’s Pitching

Abbott, a left-handed pitcher for the Reds, boasts a season ERA of 3.69. His SIERA stands at 4.38, with an xFIP of 4.62, suggesting some potential regression. With a K/9 rate of 9.31 and a BB/9 rate of 3.41, Abbott’s WHIP is a slightly elevated 1.28. His ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) is 0.57.

Bryce Miller’s Pitching

On the Mariners’ side, Bryce Miller, a right-handed pitcher, presents an ERA of 4.03. His SIERA is slightly better at 4.15, with an xFIP of 4.27, indicating a more stable performance. Miller’s strikeout rate (K/9) is 8.18 and he maintains a better control with a BB/9 rate of 1.92. His WHIP stands at an impressive 1.12, and his GB/FB ratio is 0.76.

Reds vs Mariners Prediction

Team Performance

Bullpen Comparison

  • Cincinnati Reds Bullpen Rank: 11th
  • Seattle Mariners Bullpen Rank: 9th

Offensive Matchup

  • Cincinnati Reds:
  • Overall Rank: 23
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 11
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 16
  • Seattle Mariners:
  • Overall Rank: 24
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 17
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 27

Betting Analysis and Prediction

According to our MLB betting model, the probability of a Reds victory with Andrew Abbott on the mound stands at 49.53%, with projected odds of +102 (US). Conversely, the Mariners, led by Bryce Miller, have a slightly higher probability of 50.47%, with projected odds of -102 (US).

Recommended MLB Pick

Our model finds a tiny value in backing the Cincinnati Reds at +112. This aligns with the Adjusted Kelly Criterion value of 0.45, which points to a minor, yet potentially profitable betting edge.

Conclusion: Reds vs Mariners Prediction

This Reds vs Mariners Prediction serves as a guide, but it’s crucial to make informed decisions by continuously shopping for the best odds. The subtle differences in pitcher and team performance suggest a closer game than the odds imply. Always utilize comprehensive analysis and tools like our MLB betting model to refine your betting strategy. For those looking to enhance their betting skills, consider exploring our sports betting courses.

Remember, sports betting involves risks and should be approached with caution and strategy. Always bet responsibly and within your means.

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