Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Explore our MLB betting model’s latest insight for the Reds vs Diamondbacks prediction: Cincinnati Reds hold a 47.68% chance of victory, challenging the odds with a projected value pick at +127. Bet smart by leveraging detailed analysis to back your decisions. Always verify odds for optimal betting strategy.


In today’s analysis of the Reds vs Diamondbacks prediction, we take an in-depth look at a compelling matchup scheduled at Chase Field, where the Cincinnati Reds face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks. With both teams geared up for an intense contest, bettors are eyeing the promising odds offered by top sportsbooks.

Game Details

  • Date: Monday, May 13, 2024
  • Venue: Chase Field
  • Teams: Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Starting Pitchers: Graham Ashcraft (Reds) vs Jordan Montgomery (Diamondbacks)
  • Odds: Reds +127, Diamondbacks -137 (Odds subject to change, always check for the latest)
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Pitching Matchup Overview

Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.86
  • SIERA: 4.05
  • xFIP: 3.88
  • K/9: 7.26
  • BB/9: 2.72
  • WHIP: 1.34
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 1.71
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 4.11

Jordan Montgomery (Arizona Diamondbacks)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.70
  • SIERA: 5.16
  • xFIP: 4.60
  • K/9: 3.91
  • BB/9: 2.35
  • WHIP: 1.30
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 1.32
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 4.74

Team Performance and Odds Analysis

Bullpen Strength

  • Cincinnati Reds: Ranked 9th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Ranked 25th

The Reds’ bullpen holds a significant advantage, possibly impacting late-game scenarios favorably against the Diamondbacks’ lower-ranked bullpen.

Offensive Capabilities

  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers:
  • Reds are ranked 20th
  • Diamondbacks excel, holding the top rank
  • Overall Offensive Ranking:
  • Reds: 25th
  • Diamondbacks: 13th

The Diamondbacks demonstrate stronger batting performance, especially against left-handed pitchers, which could challenge Ashcraft’s right-hand throws.

Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Betting Model Insights

Probability Analysis

  • Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft): 47.68% win probability
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery): 52.32% win probability

Projected Odds

  • Reds: +110 (Decimal: 2.10)
  • Diamondbacks: -110 (Decimal: 1.91)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Team: Cincinnati Reds
  • Pitcher: Graham Ashcraft
  • Odds: +127
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: 0.65
  • Confidence: Solid Value

Our model suggests a solid value bet on the Reds with Ashcraft on the mound, indicating potential underestimation by the market.

Conclusion: Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Utilizing the “Reds vs Diamondbacks prediction” as a guide, remember the importance of shopping for the best odds and considering all statistical angles before placing bets. While our analysis leans towards the Reds as a valuable pick due to various favorable factors, always ensure to bet responsibly and enhance your betting strategy by learning through proven sports betting courses.

Final Note: For the most accurate and up-to-date picks, consult our “MLB Picks” page and consider utilizing our detailed MLB Betting Model available via Google Sheets.

This detailed breakdown aims to assist your betting decisions for the Reds vs Diamondbacks game, providing a comprehensive view of the factors that could influence the outcome. Happy betting and may the odds be ever in your favor!

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.