Reds vs Brewers Prediction

Our MLB betting model predicts a 64.26% chance of a Brewers win over the Reds, with Freddy Peralta on the mound. The Reds vs Brewers prediction suggests Milwaukee is the better pick at -141 odds. For more insights and top MLB betting tips, explore our detailed analysis and projections.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

As we head into another thrilling MLB matchup, the Cincinnati Reds will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, June 14, 2024. This game promises to be a captivating contest, with Hunter Greene taking the mound for the Reds and Freddy Peralta pitching for the Brewers. Our comprehensive Reds vs Brewers Prediction will provide in-depth analysis, advanced stats comparison, and betting insights to help you make informed decisions.

Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Cincinnati Reds – 2.20 (120)
  • Home Team: Milwaukee Brewers – 1.71 (-141)
  • Ballpark: American Family Field

Remember, odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 3.61
  • SIERA: 3.88
  • xFIP: 4.24
  • K/9: 9.78
  • BB/9: 3.72
  • WHIP: 1.15
  • GB/FB: 0.73
  • xERA: 3.03

Hunter Greene has showcased solid performance this season, boasting a 3.61 ERA. His SIERA of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 suggest he has been fairly consistent, though there is room for improvement. With a K/9 of 9.78, Greene has proven to be an effective strikeout pitcher, although his BB/9 of 3.72 indicates some control issues.

Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 3.95
  • SIERA: 3.12
  • xFIP: 3.24
  • K/9: 11.72
  • BB/9: 3.31
  • WHIP: 1.13
  • GB/FB: 0.9
  • xERA: 3.82

Freddy Peralta, on the other hand, has an ERA of 3.95, with advanced metrics indicating stronger underlying performance. His SIERA of 3.12 and xFIP of 3.24 reveal his ability to limit opponent batting efficiently. Peralta’s K/9 of 11.72 underscores his dominance in strikeouts, paired with a slightly better BB/9 of 3.31 compared to Greene.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

Cincinnati Reds Bullpen

  • Rank: 15

The Reds’ bullpen ranks 15th in the league, reflecting an average performance. While they have had moments of brilliance, consistency remains an issue.

Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen

  • Rank: 10

The Brewers’ bullpen is ranked 10th, demonstrating a more reliable and effective performance. Their ability to close out games has been a significant advantage throughout the season.

Offensive Matchup

Cincinnati Reds

  • Overall Rank: 19
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 12
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 23

The Reds’ offense ranks 19th overall, showing a noticeable drop in performance against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 23rd. However, they perform slightly better against left-handers.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 21
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 4

Conversely, the Brewers’ offense is a force to be reckoned with, ranking 5th overall. They excel against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 4th, but struggle more against left-handers.

Reds vs Brewers Prediction

Betting Model Analysis

Probability and Odds

Based on our MLB betting model:

  • Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene): 35.73% probability, with projected odds of 180 (2.80).
  • Milwaukee Brewers (Freddy Peralta): 64.26% probability, with projected odds of -180 (1.56).

Recommended Pick

The model identifies the Milwaukee Brewers with Freddy Peralta as the more favorable pick at odds of -141, providing a good value with an adjusted Kelly Criterion calculated value of 1.39.

Conclusion for Reds vs Brewers Prediction

Using our Reds vs Brewers Prediction, you can make more informed betting decisions. Always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. If you want to learn how to bet analytically with sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses. Remember, informed betting is smart betting, and our predictions are here to guide you in making the best choices for your wagers.

For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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