Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction

Our MLB betting model predicts a tight matchup between the Red Sox and Yankees on July 5, 2024. With Tanner Houck vs. Nestor Cortes, the model gives the Red Sox a 49.94% chance and the Yankees a 50.06% chance. Betting value lies with the Red Sox at odds of 120.


The rivalry between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees is one of the most storied in Major League Baseball. On Friday, July 5, 2024, Tanner Houck of the Red Sox will face off against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. This highly anticipated matchup offers intriguing betting opportunities, which we will delve into with our Red Sox vs Yankees prediction. This analysis will help bettors make informed decisions based on current odds, advanced stats, and our MLB betting model.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Venue: Yankee Stadium

TeamOdds (Decimal)Odds (US)
Boston Red Sox2.20120
New York Yankees1.77-130

Please note that odds can change. Always check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks to maximize value.

Starting Pitchers Overview

Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck

Tanner Houck, the right-handed pitcher for the Red Sox, boasts an impressive 2.67 ERA this season. His advanced stats further solidify his dominance on the mound. Houck’s SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) is 3.1, while his xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) stands at 2.97. His strikeout rate (K/9) is 8.78, and his walk rate (BB/9) is a low 1.59. With a WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.02 and a groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 2.23, Houck has proven to be a reliable starter. His xERA (Expected ERA) is 3.68, indicating that his actual ERA is a good reflection of his performance.

New York Yankees: Nestor Cortes

Nestor Cortes, the left-handed pitcher for the Yankees, has a 3.51 ERA this season. Cortes’ SIERA is 3.79, and his xFIP is 3.89. His K/9 is 8.4, and his BB/9 is 1.63, showing that he can generate strikeouts while keeping walks under control. His WHIP is slightly higher at 1.1, and his GB/FB ratio is 0.63, indicating a tendency towards flyballs. Cortes’ xERA is 3.21, suggesting he may have been slightly unlucky with his ERA thus far.

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Bullpen Matchup

Bullpen performance can significantly impact the outcome of games, especially in closely contested matchups like this one.

TeamBullpen Rank
Boston Red Sox10
New York Yankees12

The Red Sox bullpen ranks slightly better than the Yankees, which could be crucial in the later innings.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Offensive Rankings

TeamOverall RankRank vs LHPRank vs RHP
Boston Red Sox696
New York Yankees3102

The Yankees have the edge overall and particularly excel against right-handed pitchers, where they rank second in the league. The Red Sox are strong against both left and right-handed pitchers, but slightly less effective against lefties, like Cortes.

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction

Betting Model Analysis

Our MLB betting model provides a probability assessment for this matchup, offering valuable insights for our Red Sox vs Yankees prediction.

TeamProbabilityProjected US OddsProjected Decimal Odds
Boston Red Sox49.94%1002.00
New York Yankees50.06%-1002.00

The model indicates a nearly even matchup, with the Yankees having a slight edge. However, the moneyline value appears to favor the Red Sox, offering a solid betting opportunity.

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our analysis, the recommended MLB pick for this game is the Boston Red Sox with Tanner Houck on the mound. The odds of 120 provide a good value bet, and the Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated value is 0.82, indicating solid value and confidence in this pick.

Conclusion: Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction

In summary, our Red Sox vs Yankees prediction highlights the competitive nature of this matchup. With Tanner Houck’s strong performance and the slight edge in bullpen rankings, the Red Sox present a valuable betting opportunity. Remember to use this analysis as a guide and always shop for the best MLB betting odds. For final picks and further betting insights, check our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model to make your own informed projections.

Using the Red Sox vs Yankees prediction as part of your betting strategy can enhance your chances of success. Always stay informed, bet responsibly, and enjoy the excitement of one of baseball’s greatest rivalries.

By following these insights and betting tips, you can navigate the complexities of MLB betting with confidence. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the game, our analysis of the Red Sox vs Yankees prediction provides a comprehensive guide to making informed wagers.

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