Thursday, April 13, 2023

Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL, 1:10 PM ET

The Boston Red Sox will face the undefeated Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Thursday, April 13th.

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to continue their incredible winning streak as they take on the Boston Red Sox in the final game of a four-game series. The Rays have a perfect 12-0 record this season and are aiming to become the third team since 1900 to open with a 13-0 start. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are struggling with a 5-7 record and hope to bounce back against the red-hot Rays.

In their last meeting on April 12, 2023, the Rays narrowly edged the Red Sox with a 9-7 victory. The Rays are the heavy favorites in this matchup, with the Red Sox looking to pull off an upset. Let’s jump to Red Sox vs Rays prediction with expert analysis and final MLB pick for today.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Matchup

The Red Sox are 5-7 on the season, while the Rays are undefeated with a 12-0 record.

Betting Odds

  • Boston Red Sox +185
  • Tampa Bay Rays -204
  • Over/Under Line 8
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are home favorites at -204, while the Boston Red Sox are underdogs at +185 in their matchup on 4/13/2023. With the total runs set at 8.

Pitching Matchup: Corey Kluber vs Jeffrey Springs

Boston’s right-handed pitcher Corey Kluber (0-2, 6.48 ERA) will face his former team for the first time since leaving Tampa Bay. Last season, he went 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays. In his career against the Rays, Kluber has a 5-3 record with a 2.98 ERA in 11 starts.

On the other side, Tampa Bay’s left-hander Jeffrey Springs (2-0, 0.00 ERA) will take the mound in an attempt to sweep the four-game series. Springs has been impressive so far, allowing only three hits and four walks while striking out 19 in 13 scoreless innings against the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics.

Bullpen Support

When it comes to the bullpens, the Red Sox have an ERA of 3.38 and a SIERA of 4.30, ranking 22nd in the league. The Rays’ bullpen, on the other hand, has an ERA of 2.25 and a SIERA of 4.36, ranking 25th. This indicates that the Rays have a slight advantage in the bullpen department, which could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Hitting Matchup

In this matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays have a clear advantage when it comes to hitting. They are averaging 7.5 runs per game with a batting average of .283 and an OBP of .356. Against right-handed pitchers, their scoring jumps to an impressive 8.3 runs per game. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are averaging 5.5 runs per game with a batting average of .240 and an OBP of .315. They perform slightly better against left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.8 runs per game.

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Injury Report

For the Red Sox, several key players are questionable or out indefinitely due to injuries, such as M. Yoshida, Z. Kelly, A. Duvall, W. Mills, J. Paxton, B. Bello, J. Rodriguez, A. Mondesi, and T. Story. The Tampa Bay Rays are also dealing with a number of injuries, with players like S. Armstrong, Z. Eflin, J. Siri, T. Glasnow, A. Kittredge, and S. Baz on the injury list.

MLB Betting Model Prediction

My baseball betting model (MLB prediction model) gives 44.39% of chance to Boston and 55.61% of chance to Tampa Bay. Turning these probabilities into the odds, we get fair betting lines Red Sox +125 and Tampa Bay -125. Based on this MLB prediction model, there is value on the Red Sox, as the difference in probabilities gives us a positive expected value (+EV) on Red Sox.

Interesting Betting Trends

Important: When it comes to making predictions about MLB games, it’s important to keep in mind that betting trends are not the best indicator of what will happen. They have very little or no predictive power and should be taken with caution. However, they can be useful in seeing some interesting angles. Read the fallacy of betting trends.

Over the past three seasons, Tampa Bay holds a 26-18 record (+5.7 Units) against Boston. In the same timeframe, Tampa Bay has a 19-5 record (+12.2 Units) against Boston when playing at home. In their last 53 home games against teams with a losing record, the Rays have a 42-11 record. When the total is set at 6.5 or lower, the Rays have a 1-5 record in their past six games. The Red Sox have a 5-2 record in their most recent seven games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction and Recommended MLB Pick

Tampa Bay Rays are a red-hot team right now. They are on a 12-0 run, which is amazing. However, I think they are a little bit overrated in this game when it comes to the odds. First of all, there won’t be such a big advantage in pitching. Rays’ bullpen is also not better than Red Sox’s bullpen.

Kluber, who will pitch against Tampa Bay, knows this team and has a good record against Tampa in the past. On the other side, Springs is 0-2 vs. Boston, and Boston is hitting better against lefties. Springs is a left-handed pitcher.

Taking into consideration all available information and my MLB prediction model, I still give the Red Sox a lower chance than the Rays in this game (44.39%), but this reflects the value (+EV) compared to market prices. Because we can get the Red Sox at +185.

+EV and Best Bet:

  • Red Sox +185
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