Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Pittsburgh Pirates a 60.81% probability of winning against the Boston Red Sox. With projected odds at -155 for the Pirates and +155 for the Red Sox, the value lies in betting on Pittsburgh, offering a solid opportunity in Saturday’s matchup.


As the Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off this Saturday at PNC Park, the betting community is buzzing with anticipation. This Red Sox vs Pirates prediction takes a deep dive into the matchup between pitchers Kutter Crawford and Mitch Keller, examining everything from pitching stats to team performance, aiming to guide your MLB betting decisions.

Game Overview

Match Details

  • Date: Saturday, April 20, 2024
  • Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
  • Starting Pitchers: Kutter Crawford (Red Sox) vs. Mitch Keller (Pirates)

Betting Odds Snapshot

  • Boston Red Sox: +100 (Decimal Odds: 2.00)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: -120 (Decimal Odds: 1.83)

Remember, odds are subject to change; it’s always wise to check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds before placing a bet.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Kutter Crawford (Boston Red Sox)

  • ERA: 3.84
  • SIERA: 3.88
  • xFIP: 4.21
  • K/9: 9.84
  • BB/9: 2.79
  • WHIP: 1.12
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.73
  • xERA: Not listed

Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates)

  • ERA: 4.25
  • SIERA: 3.85
  • xFIP: 3.72
  • K/9: 9.52
  • BB/9: 2.56
  • WHIP: 1.27
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.28
  • xERA: Not listed

Comparative Insights

While Kutter Crawford boasts a slightly higher strikeout rate, Mitch Keller shows better control and ground ball tendencies, which could prove crucial in PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly environment.

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction

Team Performance: Bullpen and Offense

Bullpen Matchup

  • Boston Red Sox Bullpen Rank: 10
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen Rank: 8

The Pirates’ bullpen holds a slight edge in performance rankings, suggesting better late-game pitching support compared to the Red Sox.

Offensive Comparison

  • Boston Red Sox: Overall Rank 27, Rank vs RHP 28, Rank vs LHP 20
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Overall Rank 18, Rank vs RHP 18, Rank vs LHP 18

Offensively, the Pirates are more consistent and potent, especially against right-handed pitchers like Crawford.

MLB Betting Model Insights

Predicted Outcomes

  • Boston Red Sox Probability: 39.19%
  • Model Projected US Odds: +155
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.55
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Probability: 60.81%
  • Model Projected US Odds: -155
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.64

Recommended MLB Pick

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg
  • Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Pitcher: Mitch Keller
  • Odds: -120
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.36
  • Confidence: Good value

This model suggests there is good value in backing the Pirates at these odds, highlighting Mitch Keller’s favorable matchup against the Red Sox lineup.

Conclusion: Making Your Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction

This detailed analysis of the Red Sox vs Pirates matchup provides a foundational perspective for your betting strategy. Always ensure to cross-reference the latest odds and consider market movements before placing bets. Use this prediction as a guide, but remember to make informed decisions based on a range of data and betting insights. For more tips and strategies, including how to use sports betting models, visit our MLB Picks page or explore our sports betting courses.

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