Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Boston Red Sox a 51.61% chance of winning against the Baltimore Orioles on May 27, 2024. With Cooper Criswell on the mound, the Red Sox present a good value pick at +135 odds. Bet smart with our in-depth Red Sox vs Orioles prediction.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

As we look forward to the exciting matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, May 27, 2024, we delve into the detailed predictions and betting insights for this game. This post will provide a comprehensive Red Sox vs Orioles prediction, examining the starting pitchers, bullpen, and offensive capabilities of both teams.

Teams and Ballpark

  • Away Team: Boston Red Sox
  • Decimal Odds: 2.35
  • US Odds: +135
  • Home Team: Baltimore Orioles
  • Decimal Odds: 1.63
  • US Odds: -159
  • Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Note that odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks for the latest updates.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Cooper Criswell (Boston Red Sox)

Cooper Criswell, the right-handed pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, has an impressive ERA of 2.78 this season. His advanced stats are as follows:

  • SIERA: 3.11
  • xFIP: 3.08
  • K/9: 9.46
  • BB/9: 1.95
  • WHIP: 1.08
  • GB/FB: 1.54
  • xERA: 2.93

Criswell’s control and ability to strike out batters make him a formidable opponent on the mound.

Cole Irvin (Baltimore Orioles)

Cole Irvin, the left-handed pitcher for the Orioles, holds a slightly higher ERA at 2.9. His advanced stats include:

  • SIERA: 4.01
  • xFIP: 3.81
  • K/9: 6.25
  • BB/9: 1.79
  • WHIP: 1.07
  • GB/FB: 1.5
  • xERA: 3.17

While Irvin may not have the same strikeout prowess as Criswell, his WHIP and ability to limit walks make him a solid pitcher for the Orioles.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

When it comes to the bullpen, the Boston Red Sox have a slight edge over the Baltimore Orioles. The rankings are as follows:

  • Boston Red Sox Bullpen Rank: 8
  • Baltimore Orioles Bullpen Rank: 15

The Red Sox bullpen has been more reliable, which could play a crucial role in the later innings of the game.

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

Offensive Matchup

Overall Hitting

  • Boston Red Sox:
  • Overall Rank: 10
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 10
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 10
  • Baltimore Orioles:
  • Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 1
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 12

The Orioles have a significant advantage against left-handed pitchers, ranking first in this category. However, against right-handed pitchers like Criswell, their performance dips, which could be a critical factor in this game.

Betting Model Probability

Based on our MLB betting model, we have calculated the following probabilities and projected odds for the game:

  • Boston Red Sox (Cooper Criswell):
  • Probability: 51.61%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -107
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.94
  • Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin):
  • Probability: 48.38%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 107
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.07

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our analysis and the MLB betting model, the recommended pick for this game is:

  • Side: Boston Red Sox
  • Pitcher: Cooper Criswell
  • Odds: +135
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.58
  • Confidence: Good value

This recommendation is based on the perceived value in the current odds and the slight edge that the Red Sox hold in this matchup.

Conclusion: Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

Our Red Sox vs Orioles prediction highlights the importance of thorough analysis in sports betting. By examining key factors such as starting pitchers, bullpen performance, and offensive rankings, we can make informed betting decisions. Remember to always shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions and bonuses during the baseball betting season.

If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses. For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit the “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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