Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

For the Red Sox vs Marlins prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Boston Red Sox a 69.84% chance of winning with odds of -232. With Kutter Crawford on the mound and a robust offense, the Red Sox are the favored pick over the Marlins. Bet smart and check the best MLB odds.


In this highly anticipated matchup, our focus turns to the Red Sox vs Marlins prediction for Tuesday, July 2, 2024. With Kutter Crawford pitching for the Boston Red Sox and Valente Bellozo on the mound for the Miami Marlins, this game promises to be a thrilling contest. Our comprehensive analysis dives deep into the pitching stats, bullpen strength, and offensive capabilities to provide you with the best Red Sox vs Marlins prediction. Betting enthusiasts and baseball fans alike will find valuable insights to guide their wagers on this exciting MLB showdown.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Matchup: Red Sox vs Marlins
Date: Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Location: loanDepot Park


  • Boston Red Sox: 1.59 (-169)
  • Miami Marlins: 2.40 (140)

As always, remember that odds can change, so be sure to check for the best MLB odds on various sportsbooks before placing your bets.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Boston Red Sox – Kutter Crawford

Kutter Crawford, the right-handed pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, has been solid this season with an ERA of 3.54. Crawford’s advanced stats reflect his effectiveness on the mound:

  • SIERA: 3.83
  • xFIP: 4.05
  • K/9: 9.29
  • BB/9: 2.87
  • WHIP: 1.15
  • GB/FB: 0.74
  • xERA: 3.92

Crawford’s ability to strike out batters at a high rate (9.29 K/9) combined with his manageable walk rate (2.87 BB/9) and solid WHIP (1.15) make him a formidable opponent.

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Miami Marlins – Valente Bellozo

Valente Bellozo, also a right-handed pitcher, will be starting for the Miami Marlins. Bellozo is relatively new with an ERA of 0. His advanced metrics are as follows:

  • SIERA: 5.31
  • xFIP: 5.55
  • K/9: 3.6
  • BB/9: 0
  • WHIP: 0.4
  • GB/FB: 0.56
  • xERA: 1.56

Bellozo’s stats show potential but also indicate areas where he might struggle, particularly his low strikeout rate (3.6 K/9) and ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.56).

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

Boston Red Sox Bullpen

The Boston Red Sox bullpen is ranked 7th in the league, showcasing a strong supporting cast for Crawford. This solid bullpen performance could be crucial in maintaining a lead or keeping the game close in the later innings.

Miami Marlins Bullpen

The Miami Marlins bullpen is ranked 17th, which is significantly lower than Boston’s. This discrepancy in bullpen performance could play a pivotal role in the outcome of the game, especially if the starting pitchers are pulled early.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Boston Red Sox Hitting

  • Overall Rank: 7
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 10
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 7

The Boston Red Sox have a strong offensive lineup, especially against right-handed pitchers, which bodes well for their matchup against Bellozo.

Miami Marlins Hitting

  • Overall Rank: 30
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 30
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 28

The Miami Marlins’ offense has struggled significantly this season, ranking last in the league. Their performance against right-handed pitchers is particularly poor, which will be a challenge against Crawford.

Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

Our MLB betting model projects the following probabilities for the Red Sox vs Marlins prediction:

  • Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford): 69.84% probability of winning
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -232
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.43
  • Miami Marlins (Valente Bellozo): 30.14% probability of winning
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 232
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 3.32

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is:

  • Side: Boston Red Sox
  • Pitcher: Kutter Crawford
  • Odds: -169
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.87
  • Confidence: Good value

Given the strong probability for a Red Sox victory and the favorable odds, this matchup presents a valuable betting opportunity.

Conclusion for Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction

In conclusion, the Red Sox vs Marlins prediction heavily favors the Boston Red Sox. With Kutter Crawford’s strong pitching metrics, the Red Sox’s robust bullpen, and their superior offensive capabilities, they have a significant advantage over the Marlins. Valente Bellozo, while promising, faces an uphill battle against a well-rounded Red Sox team.

Always use the Red Sox vs Marlins prediction as a guide and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. It’s crucial to shop around for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions during the baseball betting season. For those interested in learning how to bet like a pro using analytical sports betting models, be sure to check out our sports betting courses.

This Red Sox vs Marlins prediction provides a comprehensive analysis to help you make an informed betting decision. Remember, the key to successful sports betting is a blend of thorough research, strategic planning, and smart money management. Happy betting!

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.