Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction

Our Red Sox vs Cardinals prediction leans towards the Boston Red Sox, with a 52% win probability based on our MLB betting model. Brayan Bello’s strong pitching stats give the Red Sox an edge over Kyle Gibson and the Cardinals. Bet analytically and explore the best odds for your wagers.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

On Friday, May 17, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will face the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. As we delve into our Red Sox vs Cardinals prediction, it’s crucial to evaluate the teams, starting pitchers, bullpens, and overall offensive capabilities to make an informed betting decision. The sportsbook odds currently list the Boston Red Sox at 1.90 (-111) and the St. Louis Cardinals at 2.03 (103). Keep in mind that odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Brayan Bello (Boston Red Sox)

Brayan Bello, the right-handed pitcher for the Red Sox, enters this game with an impressive ERA of 3.13. His advanced stats further illustrate his prowess on the mound:

  • SIERA: 3.69
  • xFIP: 3.46
  • K/9: 7.67
  • BB/9: 2.56
  • WHIP: 1.07
  • GB/FB: 1.88
  • xERA: 3.77

Bello’s performance is characterized by his strong strikeout-to-walk ratio and his ability to keep batters off the bases, evidenced by his low WHIP.

Kyle Gibson (St. Louis Cardinals)

Kyle Gibson, also a right-handed pitcher, has an ERA of 3.67. His advanced metrics are as follows:

  • SIERA: 4.37
  • xFIP: 4.2
  • K/9: 7.35
  • BB/9: 3.67
  • WHIP: 1.2
  • GB/FB: 1.38
  • xERA: 5.42

Gibson’s stats indicate a higher propensity for walks and a higher xERA, suggesting potential vulnerabilities that the Red Sox lineup could exploit.

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Bullpen Matchup

The bullpens play a critical role in determining the outcome of close games. Here’s how both teams rank:

  • Boston Red Sox: 9th
  • St. Louis Cardinals: 3rd

The Cardinals’ bullpen has been more reliable this season, ranking higher than the Red Sox. This edge could be crucial in the later innings.

Offensive Matchup

Boston Red Sox

  • Overall Rank: 8th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 11th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 9th

The Red Sox boast a strong overall offense, with a balanced approach against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Overall Rank: 25th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 28th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 15th

The Cardinals’ offense has struggled, particularly against left-handed pitchers, and ranks significantly lower overall compared to the Red Sox.

Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides the following probabilities and projected odds for this matchup:

  • Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello): 52.00% probability, projected US odds -108, projected decimal odds 1.92
  • St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Gibson): 48.00% probability, projected US odds 108, projected decimal odds 2.08

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick for this game is:

  • Moneyline Value: Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello) at -111

While the adjusted Kelly Criterion value is -0.13, indicating no significant value, our bold opinion leans towards the Red Sox due to Bello’s superior advanced stats and the overall offensive strength of the team.

Conclusion: Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction

Our Red Sox vs Cardinals prediction suggests a slight edge for the Boston Red Sox based on pitching and offensive matchups. However, remember to use this analysis as a guide and always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds. For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, check out our sports betting courses. Betting analytically with sports betting models can help you make more informed and profitable decisions.

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