Red Sox vs Braves Prediction

For the Red Sox vs Braves prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Braves a 55.2% win probability, but the value lies in betting on the Red Sox at +145. Kutter Crawford’s solid form and Boston’s stronger offense make them a worthwhile pick despite Atlanta being the favorite.


Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Tuesday, May 7, 2024
  • Ballpark: Truist Park

Moneyline Odds:

  • Boston Red Sox: 2.45 (+145)
  • Atlanta Braves: 1.57 (-175)

Please note that odds can change, so always check multiple sportsbooks to find the best MLB odds before placing your bet.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Boston Red Sox: Kutter Crawford

  • Handedness: Right-handed
  • ERA: 1.56
  • SIERA: 3.81
  • xFIP: 3.91
  • K/9: 8.93
  • BB/9: 2.9
  • WHIP: 1.07
  • GB/FB: 0.8
  • xERA: 2.93

Kutter Crawford has shown strong command this season, maintaining a solid 1.56 ERA. His 2.93 xERA and impressive 8.93 K/9 rate bolster his effectiveness, making him a formidable challenge on the mound.

Atlanta Braves: Reynaldo Lopez

  • Handedness: Right-handed
  • ERA: 1.5
  • SIERA: 3.55
  • xFIP: 3.58
  • K/9: 9.3
  • BB/9: 3
  • WHIP: 1
  • GB/FB: 0.97
  • xERA: 3.23

Reynaldo Lopez brings a powerful arm to this matchup, with a 1.5 ERA and an even better K/9 rate of 9.3. His WHIP of 1.0 reflects a strong ability to limit baserunners.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Boston Red Sox: Ranked 9th
  • Atlanta Braves: Ranked 12th

The Red Sox have a slight edge here, with their bullpen ranking ahead of the Braves.

Offensive Matchup

  • Boston Red Sox: Overall (4th), vs. Left-handed Pitchers (4th), vs. Right-handed Pitchers (6th)
  • Atlanta Braves: Overall (8th), vs. Left-handed Pitchers (8th), vs. Right-handed Pitchers (9th)

The Red Sox offense has outperformed the Braves this season, particularly against right-handed pitching, which will be crucial in this matchup.

Red Sox vs Braves Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability and Recommendation

Baseball Betting Model Probability:

  • Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford): 44.8% (US odds +123, Decimal odds 2.23)
  • Atlanta Braves (Reynaldo Lopez): 55.2% (US odds -123, Decimal odds 1.81)

Recommended MLB Pick:

  • Side: Boston Red Sox
  • Pitcher: Kutter Crawford
  • Odds: +145
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: 0.67
  • Confidence: Solid value

Conclusion: Red Sox vs Braves Prediction

The Red Sox vs Braves prediction favors Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox at the current odds. While the Braves have the slight edge based on our betting model, the value lies in the Red Sox at +145. Their offensive prowess and better bullpen ranking provide additional support.

Always shop for the best MLB odds, take advantage of promotions during the season, and use a reliable betting model. For more insights and comprehensive betting strategies, visit the “MLB Picks” page or explore our sports betting courses.

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