Red Sox vs Athletics Prediction

Our MLB betting model places the Boston Red Sox with a 52.36% chance of winning against the Oakland Athletics at 47.63%. This Red Sox vs Athletics prediction suggests a closely matched game, highlighting the Athletics as a value bet at +120 odds. Dive into the analysis for strategic betting insights.


As the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics prepare to face off on Wednesday, April 3, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum, the sports betting world is buzzing with predictions and analyses. This Red Sox vs Athletics prediction post aims to provide bettors with detailed insights into the matchup, focusing on the starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Ross Stripling, the teams’ offensive and bullpen performances, and the odds from various sportsbooks. Remember, odds can change, so it’s crucial to check the latest MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Game Overview

The Boston Red Sox, with Nick Pivetta on the mound, are currently favored with decimal odds of 1.70 and US odds of -143. The Oakland Athletics, with Ross Stripling starting, are the underdogs with decimal odds of 2.20 and US odds of +120.

Starting Pitchers Comparison

  • Nick Pivetta (Boston Red Sox): A right-handed pitcher with a 4.66 ERA. Pivetta boasts a SIERA of 3.69, an xFIP of 3.76, and an impressive K/9 rate of 10.86. Despite a relatively high BB/9 rate of 3 and a WHIP of 1.22, his ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) is 0.91, indicating a slight tendency towards fly balls.
  • Ross Stripling (Oakland Athletics): Also a right-hander, Stripling has a slightly higher ERA of 4.93. His SIERA sits at 4.15 with an xFIP of 3.68 and a lower K/9 rate of 6.75. Stripling’s control is better, with a BB/9 rate of 1.28 and a WHIP of 1.24. His GB/FB ratio is 1.67, showing a stronger inclination towards inducing ground balls.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

  • Bullpen: The Red Sox’s bullpen ranks 9th, significantly outperforming the Athletics, who are ranked 29th. This could play a crucial role in the late innings of the game.
  • Offensive Matchup: Offensively, the Red Sox are ranked 17th overall but struggle against left-handers, ranking 23rd. Against right-handers, they improve to 14th. The Athletics are ranked 19th overall, with more pronounced struggles against both left and right-handed pitchers, ranking 28th and 25th, respectively.
Red Sox vs Athletics Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

According to my MLB betting model, the Boston Red Sox have a 52.36% probability of winning, with projected US odds of -110 and decimal odds of 1.91. The Oakland Athletics are close behind with a 47.63% chance, projected US odds of +110, and decimal odds of 2.10. Despite the Red Sox being slight favorites, the recommended MLB pick based on the adjusted Kelly Criterion suggests a tiny value in betting on the Oakland Athletics at +120 odds.

Conclusion: Red Sox vs Athletics Prediction

In this Red Sox vs Athletics prediction, while the Red Sox are favored, the Athletics present a value betting opportunity based on our analysis. It’s important to use this prediction as a guide while also shopping for the best MLB odds and taking advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. Remember, never blindly follow any sports picks and consider learning how to bet analytically with sports betting models to enhance your betting strategy.

For the final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or explore my MLB Betting Model on Google Sheets for a deep dive into how to calculate odds and make your baseball betting projections.

Always remember, informed betting is smart betting.

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