Rays vs Yankees Prediction April 21

Our MLB betting model gives the New York Yankees a slight edge with a 52.63% chance to win against the Tampa Bay Rays’ 47.35%. With the Yankees at odds of -111 and the Rays at +115, there’s a slight value bet on the Rays in this closely contested matchup.


In the upcoming MLB showdown at Yankee Stadium, the focus will be on the Rays vs Yankees prediction for Sunday, April 21, 2024. This game not only features a clash between two powerhouse teams but also a pitching duel between the Tampa Bay Rays’ Aaron Civale and the New York Yankees’ Luis Gil. With Civale’s solid start to the season and Gil stepping into the spotlight, the stakes are high. Let’s dive into the details to forecast the outcome.

Game Details

Teams and Odds

  • Away Team: Tampa Bay Rays | Odds: +115 (Decimal: 2.15)
  • Home Team: New York Yankees | Odds: -115 (Decimal: 1.87)
  • Location: Yankee Stadium, NY

Starting Pitchers

  • Aaron Civale (Rays) – Right Handed Pitcher | ERA: 3.34
  • Luis Gil (Yankees) – Right Handed Pitcher | ERA: N/A

Pitchers’ Advanced Stats Comparison

Aaron Civale’s Performance:

  • SIERA: 3.97
  • xFIP: 3.95
  • Strikeouts per Nine Innings (K/9): 8.79
  • Walks per Nine Innings (BB/9): 2.29
  • WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched): 1.12
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 0.95

Luis Gil’s Current Season Stats:

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Performance

  • Tampa Bay Rays: Ranked 30th
  • New York Yankees: Ranked 27th

Offensive Comparison

  • Tampa Bay Rays: Overall Rank – 14th; Against Left-Handed Pitchers – 14th; Against Right-Handed Pitchers – 11th
  • New York Yankees: Overall Rank – 4th; Against Left-Handed Pitchers – 10th; Against Right-Handed Pitchers – 5th

Betting Model Analysis

According to our MLB betting model, the Yankees are slightly favored with a probability of 52.63% to win, translating to projected odds of -111 (Decimal: 1.90). Conversely, the Rays have a 47.35% chance, with projected odds of +111 (Decimal: 2.11). Despite this, the current sportsbook odds offer a tiny value bet on the Rays with Aaron Civale at +115.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick

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  • Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (Moneyline)
  • Pitcher: Aaron Civale
  • Odds: +115
  • Calculated Value: Tiny (Adjusted Kelly Criterion: 0.16)
  • Confidence Level: Low

Conclusion: Rays vs Yankees Prediction

For your Rays vs Yankees prediction, consider the analysis provided and align it with the best available odds. Remember, betting should always be approached with caution and informed by thorough research. Do not blindly follow picks; instead, use them as a guideline to inform your decisions. For those looking to enhance their betting strategy, consider exploring detailed sports betting courses or models. Always shop for the best MLB odds and take advantage of any promotions during the season.

Final Thoughts

Stay tuned for our regular updates on MLB picks, and ensure to check out our detailed betting model to refine your betting strategies further. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the scene, understanding the nuances of each matchup can significantly enhance your betting success.

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