Will the struggling White Sox find a way to end their losing streak against the league-leading Tampa Bay Rays? Discover our Rays vs White Sox prediction.

Introduction: On April 28, 2023, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox will go head-to-head at 7:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL. The White Sox, currently experiencing the majors’ longest active losing streak, hope to stage a comeback against the formidable Rays, who boast a 21-5 record.

Game Details and Betting Odds

  • Date and Time: April 28, 2023, 7:10 PM ET
  • Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
  • Betting odds:
    • Tampa Bay Rays (starting pitcher: RHP Zach Eflin): -147
    • Chicago White Sox (starting pitcher: RHP Lucas Giolito): +136
  • Over/Under: Set at 8.5 runs

Previous Matchup (April 27, 2023): Tampa Bay 14, Chicago White Sox 5

The White Sox, with a 7-19 record this season, have been outscored 29-5 over their last three games and have lost seven of their last eight. They’ll attempt to change their fortunes with a victory against the Rays, which would secure their second win in their last nine games.

Pitching Matchup: Eflin vs Giolito

Zach Eflin (3-0, 2.81 ERA) will take the mound for the Rays. Essentially serving as a replacement for Corey Kluber, who joined the division rival Boston Red Sox, Eflin has a 1-0 record when starting against the White Sox, with an impressive 1.80 ERA and a WHIP of 0.600.

On the other hand, Lucas Giolito (1-2, 4.50 ERA) will aim to bounce back from his Sunday loss to Eflin and the Rays. The right-hander allowed four runs on five hits, including home runs by Raley and Harold Ramirez, over seven innings. With a 2-1 record and a 2.70 ERA against the Rays in seven career starts, Giolito has held Tampa Bay to a .195 batting average, making them one of three teams (alongside the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies) he’s limited to a team batting average below .200.

Bullpen Comparison

The Rays’ bullpen boasts a 2.64 ERA, while the White Sox bullpen struggles with a 6.06 ERA. Chicago’s pitching ranks among the league’s worst, giving up 5.75 runs per game.

With this information in mind, stay tuned for the second part of our Rays vs White Sox prediction below, where we will delve deeper into hitting, injuries, and our recommended picks and best bets.

Hitting

The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the most potent offenses in the league this season, averaging 6.6 runs per game with a team batting average of .280 and an OBP of .344. Leading the charge is Randy Arozarena, who boasts a .341 batting average and 24 RBI, and Yandy Diaz, who has hit six home runs so far this season.

On the other hand, the Chicago White Sox have struggled offensively, averaging just 3.9 runs per game with a team batting average of .231 and an OBP of .282. However, they have been slightly better at home, scoring 4.4 runs per game. Andrew Benintendi leads the team with a .295 batting average, while Luis Robert Jr. leads the team with five home runs and Andrew Vaughn leads with 16 RBI.

Injuries for Rays lineup

Fortunately for the Tampa Bay Rays, they are not missing any key players from their hitting lineup. While they do have a couple of pitchers out with injuries, for the most part, their lineup is complete.

Injuries for White Sox lineup

Unfortunately, the Chicago White Sox are dealing with several injuries to key players. Yasmani Grandal is questionable with a back injury, while Hanser Alberto is out with a quadricep injury, and Yoan Moncada is out with a lower back injury. Tim Anderson is also out with a knee injury and has been placed on the 10-Day Injured List.

MLB betting model prediction: According to our MLB prediction model, the White Sox have a 51.79% chance of winning, while the Rays have a 48.21% chance of winning. This might come as a surprise to some sports bettors, but our model takes into account angles that are not always seen by the public betting community. Based on this model and the current market betting odds, there is a slight value on the White Sox at +136 because the difference in probabilities gives us a positive expected value (EV) on the White Sox.

Interesting betting trends

It’s important to keep in mind that betting trends are not always a reliable indicator of what will happen in an MLB game. However, they can be useful in highlighting some interesting angles. In the last five meetings in Chicago, the Rays are 1-4. Over the last three seasons, Tampa Bay is 9-7 (+1.7 Units) against the White Sox, while they are 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against them this season. The over has hit in 21 of the last 33 meetings in Chicago. The White Sox have struggled overall, winning just 7 of their last 27 games.

Recommended Picks and Best Bets

Despite their impressive record this season, the Rays will be facing Lucas Giolito, who has strong career numbers against them. In seven starts against the Rays, Giolito is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA, and Tampa Bay is hitting just .195 against him. Furthermore, Giolito’s ERA has dropped in his last three starts, and his advanced statistics suggest that his ERA of more than 4 is a bit too high, and he could play much better. This is a great opportunity for Giolito to step up against the Rays, where he has had success before.

Taking into consideration all the available information and our MLB prediction model, we believe there is value with the White Sox and Giolito today.

My Recommended Best Bet for today is: MLB Pick: White Sox +136

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