Rays vs Royals Prediction July 4

Our MLB betting model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 54.36% chance to win against the Kansas City Royals on July 4, 2024. With Zach Eflin facing Alec Marsh, the model’s projected odds are -119 for the Rays and 119 for the Royals. Bet strategically using our Rays vs Royals prediction.


As baseball fans eagerly await the showdown between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals, all eyes are on the pitching duel set to take place at Kauffman Stadium. Our Rays vs Royals prediction focuses on the clash between right-handed pitchers Zach Eflin and Alec Marsh. This comprehensive analysis will delve into the advanced stats of both pitchers, bullpen matchups, offensive performance, and betting probabilities to provide a well-rounded prediction for this exciting game.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the details of our Rays vs Royals prediction, let’s look at the game information and sportsbook odds for Thursday, July 4, 2024:

  • Away Team: Tampa Bay Rays
  • Decimal Odds: 1.72
  • US Odds: -139
  • Home Team: Kansas City Royals
  • Decimal Odds: 2.10
  • US Odds: 110
  • Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium

Please note that odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bets.

Starting Pitchers

Zach Eflin (Tampa Bay Rays)

Zach Eflin, a right-handed pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays, enters the game with a solid ERA of 3.92. When examining his advanced MLB stats, we find:

  • SIERA: 3.79
  • xFIP: 3.69
  • K/9: 7.11
  • BB/9: 0.72
  • WHIP: 1.12
  • GB/FB: 1.12
  • xERA: 3.31

Eflin’s impressive control, evidenced by his low BB/9 rate, and his ability to induce ground balls make him a reliable option on the mound.

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Alec Marsh (Kansas City Royals)

Alec Marsh, also a right-handed pitcher, will be representing the Kansas City Royals. Marsh’s ERA stands at 4.19, with the following advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.12
  • xFIP: 4.16
  • K/9: 8.16
  • BB/9: 2.76
  • WHIP: 1.20
  • GB/FB: 0.82
  • xERA: 4.91

Marsh shows a higher strikeout rate compared to Eflin but struggles with control, as indicated by his higher BB/9 rate and WHIP.

Bullpen Matchup

The performance of the bullpens can be crucial in determining the outcome of a game. Here’s how the Rays and Royals bullpens stack up:

  • Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen: Ranked 21st
  • Kansas City Royals Bullpen: Ranked 29th

The Rays have a more reliable bullpen, which could be a significant factor in late-game situations.

Offensive Matchup

Offense plays a critical role in complementing pitching performances. Here’s a look at how both teams rank overall and against left-handed and right-handed pitchers:

  • Tampa Bay Rays
  • Overall Rank: 14
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 13
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 16
  • Kansas City Royals
  • Overall Rank: 19
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 20
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17

The Rays have a slight edge offensively, particularly against left-handed pitchers, but the Royals are not far behind.

Rays vs Royals Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

To further refine our Rays vs Royals prediction, we turn to our MLB betting model, which provides the following probabilities and projected odds:

  • Tampa Bay Rays (Zach Eflin)
  • Probability: 54.36%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -119
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.84
  • Kansas City Royals (Alec Marsh)
  • Probability: 45.64%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 119
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.19

Our model suggests that the Rays are the slight favorites, but the value lies in carefully considering the provided odds.

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Based on the analysis from our MLB betting model, here’s our recommended pick:

  • Side: Kansas City Royals
  • Pitcher: Alec Marsh
  • Odds: 110
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.38
  • Confidence: No value, just bold opinion

While our model does not indicate significant value, taking the Royals with positive odds could be a strategic play for risk-tolerant bettors.

Conclusion for Rays vs Royals Prediction

In conclusion, our Rays vs Royals prediction provides a comprehensive analysis of the key factors influencing the outcome of this game. From the advanced stats of pitchers Zach Eflin and Alec Marsh to the bullpen and offensive matchups, we have examined all aspects to give you a well-rounded prediction. Remember to use this Rays vs Royals prediction as a guide and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro and use analytical sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB betting model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections. Enjoy the game and happy betting!

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.